The ECB meeting today is the biggest factor in the forex market, apart from US unemployment claims and, of course, the UK general elections. The difference between Tories and Labour isn’t that big, so the calm we are seeing in GBP pairs is a bit worrying, although Prime Minister May is still expected to win.
The Euro, on the other hand, is making some volatile moves, jumping to 1.12060s from 1.1220s in a few minutes after the ECB statement was released. Though it's gone back down now.
The reason for the flash spike was the removal of low-interest rates reference in the ECB statement, which was released at 13:30 GMT.
But we already knew that the ECB wasn´t going to cut interest rates. In fact, the market has been expecting the opposite, so the Euro reversed back down.
Now Mario Draghi is holding his usual press conference and the Euro is taking another dive, with EUR/USD breaking below 1.12 for the first time in about a week.
Draghi confirmed the higher growth forecasts, but inflation expectations have been cut down by the ECB. He said that core inflation, which outstrips fuel prices, is likely to remain subdued.
So, the inflation comments are having a bigger impact on the market than growth forecasts. Let´s see how the conference evolves though because the Q&A session follows the speech.
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