This week has been relatively light regarding economic data, apart from a couple releases from the UK. But we´re closing it in a blaze of glory, with the US CPI (consumer price index) and retail sales numbers due shortly.

Retail sales are always important because it shows the shape of the economy and the mood of the US consumer. CPI (consumer inflation) is important as well, since it´s the main indicator where central banks (including FED) base their monetary policy, although the importance of wages (earnings) has increased.

But, today is Black Friday, the market is extremely quiet and the volatility is really thin. That´s the problem, because apart from the element of surprise which comes with the release, we don´t even know how the forex market will react to the numbers.

The chances are that we´ll see the USD rally on a positive reading in either inflation or retail sales data and vice versa. But no one knows how far the prices might take us. We don´t even know how many people are left in the market right now.

If you´re playing to fade any moves after the initial jump, make sure that you trade this way only on a 1 point diversion. If the actual number are 2 or more points away from expectations, then I don´t see an immediate pullback after the first move, so be careful today guys.