Yesterday we had the Tramp “Tax Plan” layed out for us, while early this morning the BOJ (Bank of Japan) released their monthly statement and interest rate policy. They´re supposed to be big market movers in theory, but we didn´t see any effects on the financial markets.  

There´s more to come though, the CEB (European Central Bank) and its president Mr Marion Draghi will be up in a while, so the forex market is totally focused on that event right now.  

The economic data has been quite upbeat for months now and the Eurozone economy is at a 6 year high according to economic indicators.

That´s hawkish and I´ve heard rumours that the ECB wording in the statement will change in June, which of course will be more hawkish.

But, inflation disappointed in March and knowing Draghi thus far makes one think that he will try to talk the Euro down. June is still more than a month away, so if the ECB has decided to change its language to more hawkish, we still have a long time to go.

Until then, we stick to what we know and we know that Draghi doesn´t like a strong Euro. The problem is that 1.15 EUR/USD is the danger level for ECB, but in my opinion Draghi still has to deliver a couple of dovish/cautious comments if he wants to keep the Euro down.   

We´re still too far away from hiking the rates and there´s still the QE tapper to come before that, but we know that the market loves to anticipate things, so despite that we might even see another surge in Euro pairs, it depends how the market takes the statement and the comments in the press conference later.

But Draghi knows this and today is the last chance (officially) to talk the Euro down if they have decided to shift the language in the June´s statement.

So, my bias for this forex pair is bearish. I think Draghi will acknowledge the better economic conditions and the diminishing risk from French elections, but he will still try to keep things safe, that´s why I´m thinking about opening a a long term sell forex signal now.