Is it The Season? U.S. Construction Metrics In Focus

Posted Tuesday, September 26, 2017 by
Shain Vernier • 2 min read

The U.S. real estate industry is an important sector of the entire economy. Builders, agents, and lenders all share in what is typically a lucrative market. As with all markets, values ebb and flow. Housing Starts, Permits, and Existing Homes Sales have been down as of late.

Perhaps today’s collection of reports will paint a rosier picture.

New Home SalesThe U.S. Real Estate Sector Is A Big Part Of The Fundamental Economic Picture


Real estate is a seasonal enterprise for many North American markets. The Fall and Winter seasons typically show lag in regions susceptible to harsh weather. Today’s data shows where U.S. homes sales are at as we move into the Fall season:

Event                                                              Previous           Projected         Actual

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (YoY)     5.6%                 5.8%               5.8%

New Home Sales (MoM, Aug)                         0.580M              0.588M           0.560M

New Home Sales Change (MoM, Aug)            -5.5%                 3.3%               -3.4%

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Sept)       14                      13                    19


New Home Sales are down 20,000 from last month, coming in under projections. Home prices remain strong year-over-year, but lagging sales do speak to the seasonal nature of real estate.

The Richmond Fed Index is the latest release from a monetary policy participant. Although an arbitrary metric, it is a FED product so the higher reading is a good indicator of strength in the USD.

So far today, the markets have taken the data as positive. Currently, the DJIA is up over 60 points and S&P 500 up 5 for the opening hour of trade.

Overview: It looks as though the S&P 500 levels I broke down in the previous update are going to remain elusive for the U.S. session.  

Keep a close eye on the swing high of 2507.25 in the December E-mini S&P 500 futures contract. If it is taken out, another all-time high will be posted. This will create a fresh collection of support and resistance trading levels.

As always, trade smart and adhere to proper risk management parameters.

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