CPI Is Out And The Dollar Is Lagging

Posted Friday, October 13, 2017 by
Shain Vernier • 2 min read

The U.S. CPI statistics are out, and the USD is taking heat across the majors. As we talked about extensively this week, the FOMC minutes proved to be a bit on the dovish side. The powers that be have their eyes set on inflation, so today’s CPI number was set to be extra important.

USAU.S. Equities Continue To Rally In The Face Of A Weakened Dollar.

Well, the numbers are out. Let’s get to them.


CPI Report

Here this morning’s hard data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

Event                                                          Previous               Projected               Actual

CPI (MoM, Sept.)                                         0.4%                       0.6%                    0.5%   

CPI (YoY, Sept.)                                           1.9%                       2.3%                    2.2%

CPI Except Food And Energy (YoY, Sept.)   0.2%                      0.2%                    0.1%

Retail Sales (MoM, Sept.)                            -0.1%                      1.7%                    1.6%

The big takeaway here is that inflation is still coming in below analyst projections. Lagging inflation is baffling the FOMC and their 2% target is far from being hit. If inflation remains static, the odds of the rate hike in December will be reduced substantially.

Overview: Today’s markets have shown exceptional sensitivity to this number. Gold has broken out to the bull, the E-mini S&P 500 futures have made fresh all-time highs, and the USD is taking heat across the majors.

In short, we are going to have some trades today. Stay tuned, and let’s grab a few pips.

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