Feb 12 - 16: Forex Weekly Outlook - US Events under the Spotlight - Forex News by FX Leaders

Feb 12 – 16: Forex Weekly Outlook – US Events under the Spotlight

Posted Monday, February 12, 2018 by
Arslan Butt • 3 min read

Welcome to another week, my friends.

This week is likely to to be a bit less volatile as compared to the previous week. The economic calendar isn’t showing many tradeable events, thus, the technical traders will be taking a lead this week. Read below the top economic events of this week and stay tuned for our live market update on technical trade setups…

Quick Recap of Previous Week

The risk-off sentiment clearly caused a sell-off in the US stock markets, boosting the demands for haven assets. Thus, the Gold and Yen has had a bullish ride.

The BOE (Bank of England) left the interest rate on hold but the hawkish stance from BOE kept underpinning the Sterling.

Talking about RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia), they left the interest rate on unchanged, as widely expected. However, the weaker economic data placed the bearish pressure on the Aussie.

Last but not the least, the RBNZ (Reserve Bank of New Zealand) also left the rate on hold, but Loonie remained in selling pressure over the falling Crude Oil prices.

Economic Data Watch List

Monday – Feb 12

Today, we the volatility can remain limited as the Japanese banks will remain closed in observance of National Foundation Day. In the remaining sessions, I honestly don’t see anything exciting to trade. But, the trend is our friend rule will apply. We may see a continuation of previous trends our a bit corrections in the oversold/overbought markets.

Today, the traders will be monitoring these speeches from the officials of central banks.

  • GBP – MPC Member Vlieghe Speaks – 9:50 (GMT)
  • GBP- MPC Member McCafferty Speaks – 16:30 (GMT)
  • AUD – RBA Assist Gov Ellis Speaks – 21:50 (GMT)

Tuesday – Feb 13

GBP- Tomorrow we can expect some nice opportunities in the Pound on the back of Inflation figures. CPI is due at 9:30 (GMT) with a negative forecast of 2.9% in 2018’s first release vs. 3.0% in Dec 2017.

After the BOE shifted it’s sentiment to hawkish, market expectations for a rate hike in May have grown quite substantially. Thus, a rise in inflation will take the rate hike sentiment to the next level.

Wednesday – Feb 14

It’s a day of fundamental analysts or new traders. The economic calendar is loaded with high impact events from day start to the day end.

EUR – German Prelim GDP – At 7:00 (GMT), Destatis will release the forecast of Q4 – 2017. The previous figure of the Eurozone observed a very strong growth rate of 0.8% in Q3 2017. Now, we will see an assessment for the Q4 which is expected to be 0.6%.

USD – CPI m/m is due at 13:30 (GMT) which is expected to grow at the rate of 0.3% vs. 0.1% in past. Whereas, the Core Retail Sales are also expected to update the 0.4% previous data by 0.5%. Both of these events are supporting the 3 additional rate hike in the year 2018. Besides, the investors will be trading the Dollar with the bullish sentiment on Wednesday.

Thursday – Feb 15

AUD- Labor Market Report

At 0:30 (GMT), you need to focus on the Employment Change and Unemployment Rate. Australian markets generated 34.7K jobs in December. But this time, a modest rise of 15.2K is anticipated. Whereas, the unemployment rate is forecasted to remain the same at 5.5%.

USD – PPI m/m is due at 13:30 (GMT) with a positive forecast of 0.4% vs. -0.1% in January.

Friday – Feb 16

USD- Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment: Lastly on Friday, we will end our week with the US consumer sentiment. Newbies, It’s a survey of about 500 consumers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of current and future economic conditions. Thus, it’s going to be exciting to see if the plunge in the US stock market has placed any impact on sentiment consumers. Overall, it’s forecasted to be 95.6 vs. 95.7.

Thanks for reading, I hope this will help you plan for your whole week. Keep following for exciting Forex Trading Signals and commentary on the news releases. Have an awesomely profitable week.

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About the author

Arslan Butt // Index & Commodity Analyst
Arslan Butt is our Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst. Arslan is a professional market analyst and day trader. He holds an MBA in Behavioral Finance and is working towards his Ph.D. Before joining FX Leaders Arslan served as a senior analyst in a major brokerage firm. Arslan is also an experienced instructor and public speaker.
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