U.S. Nonfarm Payroll ready to shake the market

June 1 – Economic Events Outlook – Nonfarm Payroll Ahead

Posted Friday, June 1, 2018 by
Arslan Butt • 2 min read

Happy Friday, traders.

We had a great trading week. Team FX Leaders managed to capture some outstanding forex trading signals, closing the week with 450 pips. This week was very volatile and the chief of economic events is yet to come.

Watchlist – Top Economic Events Today


Today is one of the most awaited days of the month. Investors focus will remain on the U.S. NFP  (Nonfarm employment change) and unemployment rate.


US Dollar – USD

Labor Market Report – Today at 12:30 (GMT), the Bureau of Labor Statistics will be releasing the nonfarm employment change. Although only 164K jobs were added last month, this month’s figure is expected to rise to 190K.

The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.9 vs. 3.9%.

As we know, there’s a moderate positive correlation between ADP employment change and NFP employment change figures. That means, the positive ADP figures leads to positive NFP sentiment. On Wednesday, the ADP nonfarm payroll figure came out as 178K, missing the forecasted 191K.


What to Expect from Today’s NFP?

Since Wednesday, the dollar index has been trading strongly bearish after the release of worse than expected ADP payroll and prelim GDP figures. I think the dip in the dollar isn’t simply because of these two figures, but also due to investors pricing in the expectations of weaker NFP today.  

As per economic forecast, investors are expecting a figure of around 189K vs. 164K beforehand. Disappointment will lead to bearish waves in the dollar. On the other hand, if the NFP surprises us with plus 200K jobs, we are going to see massive buying in the dollar and sell off in gold. Better than expected figures affirm the sentiments that Powell will hike the rate four times in 2018.


Average Hourly Earnings m/m – Traders, despite the importance of NFP, we can’t overlook the average hourly earnings which are also releasing at 12:30 (GMT).

How will this impact the market?

In case of a muted nonfarm data, investors usually turn their attention to average hourly earnings reports. The earnings are expected to release at 0.3%, This is an increase from the 0.1% rise in May.

There’s going to be a large amount of volatility during the U.S. session, so it’s better to wait out the European session. Good luck traders.

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