A Slight Disruption To This Week’s Oil Inventories Cycle

Posted Wednesday, September 5, 2018 by
Shain Vernier • 1 min read

October WTI crude oil futures are showing the impact of institutional money entering the market in force. The last two sessions have proven extremely active, with price spiking and then plummeting. At press time, the bears have taken control, running October WTI crude to $69.00.

If you are involved in the WTI markets, beware of the changes to the weekly inventory release times. The API is due out later this afternoon, while the EIA stocks report is scheduled for tomorrow morning (11:00 AM EST).

It is anyone’s guess what the reports will tell us, but analysts are expecting draws on supply to decrease from recent levels. Consensus projections for the EIA stocks report are estimated to be -1.925 million barrels, down from last week’s figure of -2.566 million. I expect oil supplies to stabilize as September grinds on. However, following the travel demand of the U.S. Labor Day weekend, this week’s statistics may show larger than expected draws on supply.

October WTI Crude Oil Futures

The early trading session brought a firm test and rejection of the 38% macro retracement level ($68.53). This is a key technical area and one that is likely to be revisited in the near future.

October WTI Crude Oil Futures (CL), Daily Chart
October WTI Crude Oil Futures (CL), Daily Chart

Here are the two numbers on my radar for the remainder of the session:

  • Resistance(1): Psyche Level, $70.00
  • Support(1): 38% Macro Retracement, $68.53

Bottom Line: Today has panned out to be a relatively tight range even though volumes are heavy. This market should open up a bit as we roll toward the daily close.

Until the closing bell, long scalps from just above the 38% Macro Retracement ($68.53) are a great way to engage this market. Buys from $68.55, with initial stops at $68.44, yield 8-10 pips using a tight sub-1:1 risk vs reward ratio.

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