USD Index

Morning Brief, Nov 5 – Top Forex Trade Setups and Economic Events

Posted Monday, November 5, 2018 by
Arslan Butt • 2 min read
  • Dollar made modest gains against a bucket of currencies.
  • US job growth jumps; annual wage gains largest since 2009.
  • UK’s Services PMI remains in highlights during the London session.
  • US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI will be in focus during the New York session.
  • EUR/USD & GBP/USD intraday trade setups for today.

On Monday, the dollar made decent gains against a basket of six currencies, boosted by upbeat US jobs data. However, the gains weren’t as strong as expected as the traders remained uncertain that Washington and Beijing can adjust the trade tensions that have driven safe-haven buying of the Greenback.

 EUR/USD – Descending Triangle Pattern in Play

The technical side of the Euro hasn’t changed much and the EUR/USD keeps consolidating in a descending triangle pattern on the daily timeframe. The pattern is extending a strong support to direct currency pair above $1.1335. While on the upper side, the resistance prevails at $1.1450  and $1.1600.

The bearish breakout of this pattern can lead the direct currency pair towards $1.1165. Meanwhile, we may see this pair soaring towards $1.1500 in case the EUR/USD manages to hold above $1.1335.

Potential Economic Events to Impact

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI – The Institute for Supply Management is due to release services PMI figures at 15:00 (GMT) with a forecast of 59.3 vs. 61.6. Newbies, it’s a survey of about 400 purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories. The negative forecast may keep the US dollar in check.

Daily Technical Levels

Support     Resistance

1.1354    1.1438

1.1321    1.1489

1.1238    1.1573

Key Trading Level:    1.1405

EUR/USD – Market Sentiment

Weekly – Strong Sell

Daily – Sell

Hourly –  Neutral

EUR/USD – Trade Plan

The idea is to stay bearish below $1.1400 with a stop loss above $1.1420 and take profit at $1.1365 and $1.1350. While buying is preferred above $1.1415 for quick take profit of around 50 pips.


 GBP/USD Completes 23.6% Fibonacci; What’s Next?

On the weekly chart, the oversold GBP/USD has completed 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3175 and it’s consolidating right below it now. Looks like the pair is taking a bullish reversal, however, we can’t say much until the release of monetary policy from the Federal Reserve.

Technically, the GBP/USD is likely to face a strong resistance near 1.3025, which is extended by the double top pattern on the 4- hour chart.

Potential Economic Events to Impact

Services PMI – At 9:30 (GMT), the Markit is due to release services PMI data which may impact the GBP today. Economists are expecting a slight drop in figures from 53.4 to 53.9 this month. However, this drop isn’t big enough to trigger major fluctuations in the market.

Daily Technical Levels

Support     Resistance

1.2929    1.3019

1.2896    1.3075

1.2806    1.3165

Key Trading Level:    1.2985

GBP/USD  – Market Sentiment

Weekly – Sell 

Daily – Neutral

Hourly – Buy

GBP/USD – Trade Plan

Today, 1.2985 is a very crucial level of the GBP/USD as the market can stay in sell below this level and buying can be seen above it.

Good luck!


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