For the better part of the past month, the U.S. government has been partially shut down. Today marks the 21st day that select bureaus have been closed for business, tying an all-time record. On the financial front, the markets do not seem too concerned with the work stoppage. Only about 800,000 workers are impacted by the closure, a tiny fraction of the approximately 160 million individuals that make up the U.S. labor force. While the closure is certainly unfortunate for those affected, traders see little in the way of economic repercussion.

So, can the shutdown eventually impact the markets? In most cases, no. However, President Trump has stated on several occasions that he has the power to declare a state of emergency due to the immigration crisis at the U.S. southern border. Such a move could be made to secure desired funding for increased border security, including some form of a physical barrier.

If a state of emergency is declared, then investor angst will grow. While the intermediate-term impact on the U.S. indices will likely be moderate, short-term stock market volatility may spike. In short, the phrase “national emergency” is not what you want to hear if you are long U.S. stocks.

A Solid Week For The NASDAQ

It has been a good five trading days for the NASDAQ. Values are up significantly from this time last week and investors are beginning to shake off the hangover of December’s holiday season.

Overview: At press time, the 78% Current Wave Retracement (6660.25) is standing tall as topside resistance. However, this market is becoming compressed, suggesting that a breakout may be right around the corner. If next week’s trade takes this level out to the bull, then recovery for the NASDAQ will be a full-go.