Forex Signals Brief for Feb 28: Markets Turn their Heads to US GDP

In recent weeks, much of the attention of world markets has been on the Central Banks and geopolitical events.

We’ve seen the trade wars take a positive turn, with the US now pushing back the proposed hikes on tariffs rates that were set to come into effect on March 1. At the same time, Federal Reserve turned dovish on their monetary policy outlook in 2019.

On top of that we have more Brexit delays and another summit between US President Trump and the North Korean leader. So it has been some time since we have taken a close look at the main data points.

Today, the focus goes back on what the statistics are telling us with the release of US GDP. The figure is a first look at Q4 GDP after the US Government Shutdown delayed the release.

The real concern is that we saw a really weak retail sales figure last time around and that might very well weigh on the result here.

We also get a slew of CPI numbers out of Europe, which will be important given the fragile state of the economy.

Forex Signal Update

The FX Leaders Team finished with 2 winning signals out of 3 trades as well as another winner closed out in the EUR/CHF in early Asian trade.

Oil – Pending Signal

Oil continues its recent rally in a move that is clearly highly correlated with the overall economy and equity markets. There does appear to be some resistance overhead at 57.50-58.00 so that will be the next level to watch. If it breaks and holds, look for a potential sharp move to $60.

SPX- Active Signal

The SPX was little changed overnight, but the key data point looks like it is ahead of us with US GDP the major focus of the upcoming session. We are still long and going with the trend

Cryptocurrency Update

Bitcoin continues to struggle below the $4,000 level, after the big jump we saw last week.

There is still little by way of fundamental news to drive the price and really just analyst and media speculation. Warren Buffett called Bitcoin, ‘delusional’ while applauding Blockchain technology. A sentiment that was reiterated in a survey by KPMG that found that 48% of C-Level executives believe the tech will change the way they do business in the next 3 years.