oil supply

WTI Sells-Off Following EIA Inventories

Posted Wednesday, March 27, 2019 by
Shain Vernier • 2 min read

Since the EIA inventories report came out at 10:30 AM EST, May WTI crude oil futures have fallen more than $0.50 per barrel. Traders have once again backpedaled from long positions above $60.00. Given today’s price action, one has to wonder if WTI has put in a weekly top at $60.38.

The EIA Inventory Report Is In…

Earlier in the session, the EIA Crude Oil Stocks report came across newswires, concluding the weekly inventories cycle. Here is a look at the hard data:

Event                                    Actual        Projected      Previous

API Crude Oil Stocks             1.927M            NA          -2.133M

EIA Crude Oil Stocks            2.800M        0.309M       -9.589M

Both the API and EIA numbers came in well above expectations, on the positive side of the ledger. The big story here is the 13+ million barrel week-over-week swing in the EIA statistic. This is a mammoth figure and one that has effectively kept a lid on WTI pricing.

$60.00 Is Still The Key Number In WTI Crude

Tuesday brought a bullish breakout and the first session close above $60.00 for 2019. However, the optimism didn’t last for very long, as price of May WTI crude has returned to the $59.25 area.

May WTI Crude Oil Futures (CL), Daily Chart
May WTI Crude Oil Futures (CL), Daily Chart

Here are the levels to watch for the near future:

  • Resistance(1): Double-Top $60.38-39
  • Support(1): 38% Retracement, $58.28

Bottom Line: In a Live Market Update from last Friday, I issued a long trade recommendation from just above the 38% retracement level in this market. The play turned out to be a quick winner and the $58.28 area has stood tall through several tests.

Well, if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it! Until elected, I will once again have buy orders in queue from $58.31. With an initial stop loss at $57.94, this trade produces 25 ticks on a sub 1:1 risk vs reward management plan.

May WTI crude oil has become compressed between $60.00 and $58.00. My bias toward this market remains bullish. However, one has to respect the Double-Top as resistance and the likelihood of traders waiting for April before driving prices higher.

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