It has been a tight early-week for the EUR/USD. Following last Friday’s bullish breakout, rates have consolidated in the vicinity of 1.1325. This has been a popular technical area over the past three months. April brought an extended consolidation around 1.1300 before eventually falling to 1.1110. Is the EUR/USD in the process of forming a similar intermediate-term top?

Simply put, it is too early to tell. However, we do know this about the EUR/USD:

• The U.S. FED is overtly dovish and inflation remains below the long-term 2.0% peg.
• A resolution to Brexit may be on the way shortly with a new U.K. P.M.
• Technically, the EUR/USD remains firmly in bullish territory on the daily timeframe.
• Global recession fears are taking hold as recent economic data points to a slowdown.

Add it all up: The dollar is in a position to weaken through June and the EUR/USD is likely to grind higher by month’s end.

EUR/USD: Technical Outlook

The daily technical outlook for the EUR/USD is relatively straight forward: June’s uptrend is currently valid.

Here are the levels to watch for the remainder of the session:

• Resistance(1): Swing High, 1.1347
• Support(1): 38% Current Wave Retracement, 1.1291

Overview: Right now, it is long-or-nothing for the EUR/USD. This market is tight, but bidders are still in control of the action. Until we see trade established beneath 1.1291, a long-side bias is warranted.