Stocks Hold Gains, Brexit Vote Coming Up

Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2019 by
Shain Vernier • 2 min read

Coming up at 2:00 PM EST, a second parliamentary vote on a bill blocking a no-deal Brexit is to be held. The vote comes on the heels of a preliminary stage that brought another Conservative party defection, this by MP Caroline Spelman. For the time being, the no-deal Brexit bill is in the committee stage ahead of its second vote by Parliament.

Across the Atlantic, it has been an active day on Wall Street. Risk appears to be back in style as traders have bid the U.S. indices aggressively. At press time (1:45 PM EST), the DJIA DOW is up more than 200 points on eased Hong Kong tensions and hints at further Chinese yuan devaluation.

However, the bullish action in U.S. stocks may be poised for a turnaround pending the Brexit vote. Many on Wall Street favored the notion of a no-deal Brexit and unilateral U.S./U.K. trade agreements. Now, it is growing increasingly probable that Brexit Day may be again delayed.

U.S. Stocks Hold Gains Ahead Of Brexit Vote

September E-mini DOW futures have put in a strong session, erasing early-week losses. Values are within striking distance of 26500 and appear poised for a bullish breakout.

September E-mini DOW Futures (YM), Daily Chart
September E-mini DOW Futures (YM), Daily Chart

Here are two levels to watch in this market during this afternoon’s Brexit vote:

  • Resistance(1): 62% Current Wave, 26408
  • Support(1): Bollinger MP, 26174

Overview: By a wide margin, the key number for the September E-mini DOW is 26408. This figure represents a likely last stand from sellers; if bidders establish trade above 26408, a run toward July’s all-time highs may develop in short order.

As far as an intermediate-term bias goes, the bearish July/August trend is still valid. However, once the 62% retracement is out of the way things change dramatically. So, bullish above 26408 and bearish below, with a close eye on today’s Brexit vote, is a reasonable way to move forward.

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