Daily Brief, Sep 25: Economic Events Outlook – Risk-off Sentiment in Action

Posted Wednesday, September 25, 2019 by
Arslan Butt • 2 min read

Good morning, traders.

The trading session began with the hiked level of uncertainty triggering from the odds of impeachment inquiry against President Donald Trump. The Democrat leaders in the US House of Representatives proceeded to declare a formal impeachment hearing against President Donald Trump. It’s coming in response to rumors about US President Trump’s communications with the President of Ukraine to examine business ties of previous VP Joe Biden’s son.

The safe-haven demand was triggered after the US-China trade tightness came back to strike the market following Trump’s remarks in the UN General Assembly on China, accusing China of unfair trade practices.

Moreover, President Trump also reckoned that he was reluctant to take any “bad deal” as discussions between the trade teams of the two countries progress.

Looking ahead to the economic calendar, it remains a bit lighter today due to lack of top tier economic events. Yet, we have a few events that may help us capture price action in the market.

Watchlist – Key Economic Events Today

CHF – Credit Suisse Economic Expectations – 8:00 GMT

Credit Suisse release the Swiss Economic Expectations every month. The Credit Suisse Economic Expectations is a leading indicator of economic health – investors and analysts are highly informed by virtue of their job, and changes in their sentiment can be an early signal of future economic activity.

Overall, it’s a survey of about 30 institutional investors and analysts which asks respondents to rate the relative 6-month economic outlook for Switzerland. Economists’ forecast isn’t given for such data, but financial expectations keep on falling from -7.7 in April 2019 to -37.5 in August 2019.

The figure for September will help us decide the direction of the Swiss Franc. Above 0.0 indicates optimism, below indicates pessimism. Let’s wait for the data.

GBP – CBI Realized Sales – 10:00 GMT

The Confederation of British Industry is due to release the UK retail sales with a negative forecast of -22 vs. -49. Since it’s a leading indicator of consumer spending because consumer buying levels directly influence retailer and wholesaler sales, the drop in retail sales can also reflect in the CPI figures.

Since the data is still negative, we may see GBP/USD facing a bearish pressure on the release of the news. Besides that, the weaker figure also puts pressure on the BOE to keep the policy and interest rate accommodative.

USD – FOMC Member Evans Speaks – 12:00 GMT

The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans is due to speak about the economic outlook and monetary policy at the Lake Forest Rotary Club Economic Breakfast, in Illinois. Audience questions are expected and they may ask about forward guidance on the monetary policy. Any surprising remarks from President Evans may drive sharp movements in the market.

USD – FOMC Member George Speaks – 14:00 GMT

The Geoge who is a President of Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City is due to testify on the Federal Reserve’s plans for faster payments before the Senate Banking Committee, in Washington DC. Since the speech isn’t directly connected to monetary policy, we may see no significant fluctuations over the release of his remarks today.

Good luck, fellas and stay tuned to FX Leaders Economic Calendar for more updates.


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