USD/CHF Falls As Havens Advance

Posted Tuesday, October 1, 2019 by
Shain Vernier • 2 min read

Safe-havens, specifically the USD/CHF, are on the move as we approach the mid-U.S. session. The Trump impeachment proceedings have taken a backseat to economic data, with an anemic ISM Manufacturing PMI brining angst to the markets. The once-positive U.S. indices are now deep in the red, led by the DJIA losing more than 225 points.

The first day of October has started with a bang, featuring a full-blown bearish reversal in U.S. equities. It also marks day #2 of President Trump going on offense against the House of Representatives via Twitter. In a similar tone as yesterday, Trump has targeted House leadership for moving forward with allegations of coercion. In addition, he did offer some FED criticism in a post-ISM PMI tweet:

“As I predicted, Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve have allowed the Dollar to get so strong, especially relative to ALL other currencies, that our manufacturers are being negatively affected. Fed Rate too high. They are their own worst enemies, they don’t have a clue. Pathetic!”

Today’s tone is certainly negative and safe-havens are on the bull. Among the biggest movers and shakers is the USD/CHF.

USD/CHF Rejects Par

In a Live Market Update from last week, I broke down the importance of par and recommended a short trade from this locale. Depending upon your broker, the play was either a success or failure as the USD/CHF reversed from the immediate vicinity of the trade’s stopout point.

USD/CHF, Daily Chart
USD/CHF, Daily Chart

As we roll toward the late U.S. session, there are two daily support levels worth watching:

  • Support(1): Daily SMA, .9921
  • Support(2): Bollinger MP, .9904

Bottom Line: The hot participation in the safe-havens is quickly bringing support for the USD/CHF into view. For the remainder of the session, I will have buy orders in queue from .9919. With an initial stop at .9888, this trade produces 30 pips on a bullish rejection of the .9900 handle.

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