Lowe is Dovish

The AUD Trades at a Decade Low – Post-RBA

Posted Wednesday, October 2, 2019 by
Rowan Crosby • 1 min read

The move by the RBA to yesterday cut interest rates to another record low level of 0.75% has seen the Aussie dollar rightly tumble to decade lows.

In what was still a little bit of a shock, the RBA decided to trim the OCR by 25bp and has still indicated it will be linking its monetary policy to factors such as employment, which continue to struggle to turn around.

For investors and traders alike, we now turn to the prospect of what might come next.

There is already the suggestion that QE is on the table. The odds are low of that happening, but if we see one more 25bp cut, then it becomes a distinct possibility.

The market is now already priced in as much as a 30% chance for another 25 basis point cut in November.

While QE looks a long-shot, it does appear that we are looking at an extended period of low interest rates. Which will keep pressure on the AUD/USD for the foreseeable future.

In early Asian trade today, the Aussie is currently holding above the key 0.6700 level but only just. In the US session we saw price push as low as 0.6675 and more downside is certainly on the cards.

We have already seen the massive short position by the big speculators remain in-tact heading into the meeting, so it is safe to assume that we haven’t seen much covering as yet.

Our next opportunity will again be to the downside. A hold below 0.6700 could be an opportunity to re-short, of we could also try to sell any small bounce. 0.6750 would be a great area to target, but that now looks a long way off.

Regardless, the outlook remains bearish and the RBA is still clearly dovish, albeit reluctantly.

AUD/USD – 240min.
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