Forex Signals Brief for Oct 14: Trade Talks to Drive Markets
It was a very big end to the trading week on Friday, as markets were pleased to hear that the US and China had put together a mini-deal.
Chinese Vice-Premier Liu He and US President Donald Trump announced that the two sides had come together on a small deal to show some progress in the long-running battle between the two nations.
The US agreed to suspend a tariff hike on US$250 million of Chinese goods scheduled for this week in exchange for a commitment by Beijing to buy up to US$50 billion in goods from American farmers.
The news saw markets lift on Friday, but there are now a few wobbles as the new week gets underway. Some have suggested the news was more symbolic than anything else and this is the type of thing we’ve heard before. Prior to another stand-off and a market collapse. So Monday will be an important day to gauge just what the markets really think is going on here.
There are a couple of nations away for holidays on Monday including Japan and Canada, and the calendar this week isn’t jammed packed.
The key events will be US retail sales, jobs data out of the UK and Australia, New Zealand CPI and Chinese GDP later in the week.
But to get things underway, markets will still be heavily focused on what happened on Friday and the surrounding commentary from over the weekend.
Forex Signal Update
The FX Leaders Team had a solid week with 13 wins from 19 signals for a 68% win rate.
AUD/USD – Active Signal
The AUD/USD lifted on Friday on the back of the trade news, but has pulled back to open the Asian session on Monday. We are looking for some more upside here.
Oil – Pending Signal
WTI saw a nice jump last week given that it is a key risk-on play and we also got the break-through $54 we were looking for. If price pulls back and tests that level again, it could be a nice opportunity for a long position.
Cryptocurrency Update
BTC has not been able to break any higher than what we saw throughout last week and has since pulled back in Asian trade
The $8,500-600 level has really slowed down the bulls and to me, this is still a very bearish sign.
The headlines over the weekend are still surrounding the fallout from the Libra talks with the big name companies such as Visa, Mastercard and PayPal pulling out. I would love to see a drop out the bottom here under $8,000 as that would be an opportunity for some more downside.
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