EIA Reports Massive Supply Build - Forex News by FX Leaders
eia

EIA Reports Massive Supply Build

Posted Thursday, October 17, 2019 by
Shain Vernier • 2 min read

Fall seasonality is in full swing and crude oil stocks are on the rise. Both the API and EIA inventory reports have showed massive supply spikes indicative of fading seasonal demand. From a fundamental perspective, it appears WTI crude oil may be in a position to test the $50.00 level sooner rather than later.

API, EIA Stocks Come In Stunningly Positive

Beginning with yesterday’s API report, the global oil market began to price excess supply into the markets. Earlier today, the buzz grew louder with a surprisingly strong EIA report. Here is a quick look at this week’s hard data:

Event                                     Actual         Projected      Previous

API Crude Oil Stocks           10.50M           NA                  4.13M

EIA Crude Oil Stocks           9.281M         2.878M           2.927M

Each of these reports came in 6 million barrels above last week’s figures. This is a dramatic gain and one that may be the nail in the coffin for energy bulls in 2019.

November WTI Crude Oil Hovers Near $53.00

Thus far, November WTI pricing has yet to reflect the EIA data. A tight daily range has been the rule for today, with prices trading slightly to the bull. While traders appear at ease with the boost in inventories, the market remains firmly in bearish territory.

November WTI Crude Oil Futures (CL), Daily Chart EIA
November WTI Crude Oil Futures (CL), Daily Chart

Here are two levels to watch as we roll toward Friday’s closing bell:

  • Resistance(1): 38% Bear Run, $54.24
  • Support(1): Swing Low, $50.99

Bottom Line: At this point, a bearish bias toward WTI is warranted. Prices remain beneath the 38% Retracement ($54.24) of the current bearish trend. Until we see trade sustained above this level, a sudden plunge to $50.00 is a very real possibility.

If WTI receives a post-EIA bump from current levels, I will be looking to go short from just beneath the daily 38% Fibonacci resistance level. As long as the Swing Low ($50.99) remains the intermediate-term bottom, I will have sell orders queued up from $54.19. With an initial stop at $54.54, this trade produces 35 ticks on a standard 1:1 risk vs reward ratio.

Check out our free forex signals
Follow the top economic events on FX Leaders economic calendar
Trade better, discover more Forex Trading Strategies

About the author

Shain Vernier // US Analyst
Shain Vernier has spent over 7 years in the market as a professional futures, options and forex trader. He holds a B.Sc. in Business Finance from the University of Montana. Shain's career includes stretches with several proprietary trading firms in addition to actively managing his own accounts. Before joining FX Leaders, he worked as a market analyst and financial writer.
Related Articles
Comments

Leave a Reply

avatar
  Subscribe  
Notify of