EUR/USD Approaches 38% Retracement - Forex News by FX Leaders

EUR/USD Approaches 38% Retracement

Posted Tuesday, October 22, 2019 by
Shain Vernier • 2 min read

It has been a modest open to the week for the EUR/USD and most of the forex. A sparsely populated economic calendar has produced muted trading conditions. Subsequently, back-to-back tight sessions have come to pass. Now, with this afternoon’s U.K. Parliamentary Brexit Vote tentatively scheduled, it appears that we may finally be in for some action.

Aside from the Brexit vote, this morning has already brought several U.S. economic data releases. Here is a quick look at the highlights:

Event                                                                                  Actual        Projected      Previous

Redbook Index (Oct. YoY)                                                  4.3%               NA                 4.1%

Existing Home Sales Change (MoM, September)        -2.2%             -0.7%               1.5%

Richmond FED Manufacturing Index (Oct.)                      8                   -14                   -9

Lately, the vast majority of U.S. metrics have come in beneath expectations. Today’s are somewhat positive, although the American real estate sector continues to struggle. The major increase in the Richmond FED Manufacturing Index (Oct.) is the headliner of this group. While it is not a primary market mover, the 17 point swing in the Richmond FED Index suggests a strong month-over-month boost in manufacturing. Perhaps this figure will promote a shift in FED policy at next week’s FOMC meeting.

For now, the daily uptrend in the EUR/USD is valid. Let’s dig into the technicals and see if there is a solid opportunity to buy in on a dip.

EUR/USD Falls Toward 38% Retracement

By far, today’s premier forex market driver is going to be the U.K.’s pending vote on Brexit. It has the potential to shake up all Eurozone currencies, as well as drive participation to the safe-havens. In the event we see bearish action hit the EUR/USD, a long scalp may set up for the U.S. late or overnight session.

EUR/USD, Daily Chart
EUR/USD, Daily Chart

Here are the levels to watch as we roll toward an all-important Brexit vote:

  • Resistance(1): Spike High, 1.1171
  • Support(1): 38% Current Wave, 1.1102

Bottom Line: As long as the Spike High (1.1171) remains the short-term top of the EUR/USD, a long scalp from the 38% Current Wave Retracement isn’t a bad way to get in on the action. Until elected, I will have buy orders in the queue from 1.1106. With an initial stop at 1.1094, this trade produces a fast 6-8 pips on a slightly sub-1:1 risk vs reward ratio.

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About the author

Shain Vernier // US Analyst
Shain Vernier has spent over 7 years in the market as a professional futures, options and forex trader. He holds a B.Sc. in Business Finance from the University of Montana. Shain's career includes stretches with several proprietary trading firms in addition to actively managing his own accounts. Before joining FX Leaders, he worked as a market analyst and financial writer.
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