Daily Brief, Nov 11: Economic Events Outlook – UK GDP on the Cards
Arslan Butt • 2 min read
On Monday, the dollar held near multi-week highs amid expectations that the United States and China would reverse back tariffs that have damaged global growth. Administrators from both nations stated late last week that a reversal of tariffs had been accepted.
However, the safe-haven appeal was triggered following US President Donald Trump’s remarks. He boosted the level of risk and uncertainty by stating he had not consented to turn back tariffs.
His comments came a day after US and Chinese officials reportedly agreed to roll back tariffs on each other’s goods in a “phase one” trade agreement if it is completed.
Watchlist – Key Economic Events Today
Looking ahead to the fundamental side, most of the European and US banks will be closed in observance of Veterans Day. However, the British economy is scheduled to release GDP and manufacture production figures.
EUR – Italian Industrial Production m/m – 9:00 GMT
Istat is due to release Italy’s industrial production figures at 9:00 GMT with a forecast of -0.4% vs. 0.3%. The figure shows a change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities.
The Euro may trade with a slight bearish bias as investors are likely to price in negative data even before the news release. It’s not expected to drive any significant movement in the market.
GBP – GDP m/m – 9:30 GMT
We should monitor the GDP data, which is forecast to rise to 0.4% vs. -0.2% drop as the British economy grew at a slower pace in Q2 2019 and expected to improve in Q3.
Especially after the downbeat inflationary assessment by Mark Carney & team, we can expect a drop in GDP. The Sterling is under heavy selling pressure as the BOE Governor Mark Carney hasn’t said much about the next rate hike. The rate hike sentiments are falling apart, causing bearishness in the Pound. By the way, a slight divergence in the data can cause a considerable movement in the Cable.
GBP – Manufacturing Production m/m – 9:30 GMT
Alongside this, the Office for National Statistics is also due to release manufacturing production numbers. Economists are expecting a drop in production by -0.2% vs. -0.7%. It looks like the Sterling is going to face bearish pressure on Monday in the wake of adverse economic events.
Overall, trading activity is likely to remain muted in the wake of a bank holiday in the Eurozone, Canada, and the United States. Keep following us for more updates and forex trading signals!