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GDP in focus

Weekly Outlook, Nov 25-29: Top Five Economic Events to Watch This Week

Posted Sunday, November 24, 2019 by
Arslan Butt • 2 min read

What’s up, traders.

I hope you are having a fantastic weekend. Last week was a bit calm due to a lack of high impact economic data, except Friday. The US dollar soared versus a basket of currencies on Friday following data which showed that US factory and services activity accelerated in November as the US economy remained flexible even in the face of the US-China trade war and other headwinds.

Overall, the US dollar index, which compares the greenback versus six peer currencies, traded bullish by 0.15% at 98.139. Besides, the trade and geopolitical tensions will also remain in focus, and we need to keep an eye on any developments to determine risk levels in the market.

Top Five Economic Events to Watch This Week

German IFO Business Climate – Monday, 9:00 GMT

The business climate has been deteriorating in Germany this year, as the manufacturing sector fell deeper into recession. Ifo business climate fell to 94.6 points last month, and it was expected to tick lower to 94.9 points, but it remained unchanged.

Back in October, the poll showed stability in business confidence, at 94.6 points. A minor improvement may be seen in the report for November.

USD – CB Consumer Confidence – Tuesday, 15:00 GMT

The Conference Board Inc. is due to release consumer confidence data at 15:00 GMT today. Consumer confidence is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.

It’s a survey of about 5,000 households, which asks respondents to rate the relative level of current and future economic conditions, including labor availability, business conditions, and overall financial situation.

Economists are expecting a surge in the US Consumer Confidence figures from 125.9 to 126.9. Typically a stronger number drives sharp buying in the US dollar. Ahead of the news release, we may see investors going long on the greenback, but later the reversals can be seen in the US dollar.

USD – Prelim GDP q/q – Wednesday, 12:30 GMT

The Bureau of Economic Analysis will be releasing US Prelim GDP figures. According to the initial release, the US economy has outperformed its rivals in the second quarter by expanding at a yearly rate of 2.1%.

As you see in the chart, the US economy grew by an annualized rate of 2.1% in the second quarter of 2019, surpassing economists’ forecasts of 1.8% and following a 3.1% growth in the previous three-month period, as the advance estimate showed.

Household consumption and government spending grew at faster rates, while a drop in exports and a poorer inventory build had a negative impact on growth. In the United States, the GDP Growth Rate averaged 3.21% from 1947 until 2019, touching an all-time high of 16.70% in the first quarter of 1950 and a record low of -10% in the first quarter of 1958.

For now, economists are expecting no change in GDP data as it’s likely to stay at 1.7% in November vs. 1.7% beforehand.

EUR – German Prelim CPI m/m – Thursday, All Day

The German inflation is expected to have dropped by -0.7% during November, which is worse than October’s 0.1% figure. This may extend slight support to Euro as the US traders will enjoy a holiday in the observance of Thanksgiving Day.

CAD – GDP m/m – Friday, 13:30 GMT

Canada prints its GDP reports every month – extending updated information about its economy. In the previous two months, Canadian growth has failed to surprise the market, with a surge of just 0.1% in August and a stagnation in July.

The numbers for September settles the third quarter and thus extends a broader picture of the economy. A quicker pace of growth is on the cards now.

Good luck and have an awesome week ahead!

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