Daily Brief, Dec 20: Economic Events Outlook – UK & US GDP in Highlights
Arslan Butt • 2 min read
Today, the forex market may exhibit sharp movements in the wake of high impact economic events like Final GDP figures from the UK and US. While major focus will also remain on the Parliamentary vote on the Withdrawal Agreement Bill, which would require the UK to leave the European Union on January 31. Passing of this bill may drive buying in the GBP and vice versa.
Donald Trump became the third US President to be impeached on grounds of abuse of power by the Democratic-led House of Representatives. Another charge on him was the obstruction of Congress. During such time of political and financial uncertainty, traders tend to buy GOLD as an alternative investment.
Besides, China announced a new list of import tariff exemptions from the United States for chemical & oil products. Gold prices have gained 15% throughout the year from this 17-month long ongoing trade war between the biggest economies of the world. Watch out major economic events today.
Watchlist – Economic Events Outlook
GBP – Current Account – 9:30 GMT
The Office for National Statistics is due to release the Current Account figures for the United Kingdom, which exhibits a difference in value between imported and exported goods, services, income flows, and unilateral transfers during the previous quarter.
Economists are expecting a squeeze in the trade deficit from -25.7B to -15.7B. Since it’s a quarterly figure, the impact is supposed to be a bit higher, but in this case, the goods portion does not affect because it’s a duplicate of the monthly Trade Balance data.
The Office for National Statistics is due to release the Final GDP for Britain. The economic event shows a change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.
Lately, the UK economy has grown at a faster pace of 0.3%, but the global economic slowdown, the US-China trade war, and Brexit uncertainties seem to hurt the market. Economists are expecting no change in the Final GDP figure as it’s likely to show a 0.3% surge now.
USD – Final GDP q/q – 13:30 GMT
The US Bureau of Economic Analysis is expected to publish the figure at 13:30 GMT. Lately, the US economy expanded at an annualized pace of 2% in September 2019. It was slower than before, which placed bearish pressure on the US dollar.
The final variant of GDP growth is expected to print 2.1% vs. 2% beforehand. Higher than expected economic growth is likely to pressure the Fed to keep the rates on hold while placing bullish pressure on the US dollar.
GBP – Parliament Brexit Vote – 14:30 GMT
The UK Parliament will vote on the Withdrawal Agreement Bill, which would require the UK to leave the European Union on January 31.
The EU Withdrawal Agreement Bill would also prevent the administration from stretching the transition phase – where the UK is out of the EU but supports several of its laws – past 2020.
Boris Johnson announced it would stop “delay and rancor” and give “certainty”.
Opponents state that the bill keeps the UK’s future unsure, and that accepting a trade agreement with the EU could take many years. Let’s keep an eye on the actual decision.