Forex Signals Brief for Apr 3: NFP Lies Ahead
Rowan Crosby • 2 min read
US Market Wrap
It was a wild day in the US yesterday, with some huge moves in oil catching markets off-guard.
The action started when CNBC reported that Saudi Arabia and Russia were looking to cut production. Apparently, word came directly from Trump himself. The news was confirmed by Tweet minutes later and that send WTI soaring – eventually closing up 20% on the day. A record move not seen since 1991. However, the devil is still in the detail in that OPEC will only make significant cuts if everyone does.
The wild volatility in crude almost overshadowed the huge jump in jobless claims, that came in well above the 6 million mark and nearly double what was being expected.
In the end, the SPX finished the session 2.28% higher, while the Greenback was steady. The volatility is showing no signs of easing off right now as we look to close the week with a bang.
Funnily enough, the huge jump in jobless claims yesterday wasn’t the major talking point of the session – that, of course, was oil.
However, with the latest non-farm payroll data due out on Friday, that might be getting set to change.
The expectation for today is for a sharp drop in the number of US jobs – a 100K loss to be precise. While the unemployment rate should jump to 3.8% from 3.5%.
Again, this might be a slightly lagging number compared to the jobless claims from yesterday, but a huge drop would surely put the breaks on stocks.
We must also remember that we have been seeing sharp selling on Friday’s as investors take risk off the table over the weekend. Which is not bad advice in the current environment.
Forex Signal Update
The FX Leaders Team had two wins from three signals in what was a strong session for the boys.
Make sure you follow our live signals as the opportunities will keep on rolling in.
GBP/USD – Active Signal
The GBP/USD is so far holding nicely under the 1.2500 level, and we are looking for some downside here. The first real level we need to see drop is the most recent low. A break of that point will really open the door for a push lower.
SPX – Watching
The SPX will be an interesting trade on Friday as we wait to see whether investors seek to sell some stocks headed into the weekend.
There are both buyers and sellers that are active in BTC at the moment.
We have seen a test of the $7,000 level and buyers have been coming for it in the last 48 hours, however, there is also a bit of a bearish case as well.
As you can see on the chart, each attempt at $7,000 is met with sharp selling. Those candles that feature the long wicks really indicate selling pressure. So much so that they are really false breakouts.
For the time, being the range remains and we wait on a break and pullback that holds before taking a position.