The Unemployment Rate Jumps in the US, While Employment Crashes
The unemployment rate has been pretty low in the US for more than a year, at around 3.5%-3.6%. But, that wasn’t going to last, since good things never last here on Earth. Unemployment was expected to increase to 3.8% from 3.5% in February, but jumped to 4.4%.
That wasn’t a big surprise, considering the jobless claims in the last 2 weeks which were enormous in terms of numbers. The employment report was also pretty bad; US March non-farm employment change also declined by a massive -701K against -100K expected. This is the worst month since 2008-09 crisis. Below is the employment report:
Non-Employment Change Report
- March non-farm payrolls -701K vs -100K expected
- The worst month since the financial crisis
- February was +273K
- Household survey shows employment fell 3 million
- U6 underemployment 8.7% vs 7.0% prior
- Private payrolls -713K vs -132K exp
- Manufacturing -18K vs -12K exp
Unemployment Report
- Unemployment rate 4.4% vs 3.8% expected (3.5% in february)
- Largest one-month rise in unemployment since 1975
- Two month net revision -57K
- Participation rate 62.7% vs 63.4% prior
- U6 underemployment 8.7% vs 7.0% prior
Average Earnings Report
- Avg hourly earnings +0.4% m/m vs +0.2% exp
- Prior avg hourly earnings +0.3%
- Avg hourly earnings +3.1% y/y vs +3.0% exp
- Prior avg hourly earnings 3.0%
- Avg weekly hours 34.2 vs 34.1 exp
So, the unemployment rate jumped higher. But the participation rate also ticked 3 points higher to 62.7% from 63.4% in February, so that has had a negative impact on the jobless claims. Although, the average hourly earnings increased by +0.4% MoM in March, against +0.2% expected, while earnings YoY also increased to +3.1% vs +3.0% expected.
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