The decline should escalate as US reopens

US Jobless Claims Cool Off Slightly, But Remain Enormously High

Posted Thursday, May 14, 2020 by
Skerdian Meta • 1 min read

US unemployment claims surged to above 3 million by the middle of March, when the coronavirus lock-down was announced, as people were ordered to stay inside. The number exceeded 6 million in the following two weeks and still remains enormously high. But claims have been cooling off since then and today’s report showed that unemployment claims declined below 3 million, for the first time since mid March.

Although, as mentioned above, they are extremely high and considering that more than 30 million people have already registered for unemployment benefits, the number of people eligible for such benefits has declined dramatically, so there’s not many people left to claim jobless benefits. Below are the numbers from today’s report:

  • Initial jobless claims 2981K versus 2500K estimate. Prior month revised 23176K from 3169K previously reported
  • 4 week moving average of initial jobless claims 3616.5 K versus 4180.5 K last week
  • Continuing claims 22833K versus 25120K estimate. Prior week revised to 22377K versus 22647K estimate
  • 4 week moving average of continuing claims 19760K versus 17030.25K last week
  • total claims since mid March comes and around -36.5M
The trend in employment claims continues to turn lower. However if they still are very elevated on a weekly basis. The total amount of claims since mid March as extended to 36.5 million which is shocking. With the restart of the US economy getting going, we should see some tapering of the claims if not see a tilt back to the upside over time soon. Next week will be interesting to see the numbers as some workers return to the payroll.
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