EUR/USD Choppy Range Continues – Quick Update on Trading Signal! 

Posted Wednesday, July 1, 2020 by
Arslan Butt • 2 min read

The EUR/USD failed to stop its early-day losing streak, dropping to 1.1220 while representing 0.10% losses on the day, despite the release of the upbeat German retail sales data for May. However, the reason for the declines in the currency pair could be attributed to the broad-based strength of the U.S. dollar, triggered by the uptick in the bond yield. 

On the other hand, the currency pair buyers also failed to cheer the Upbeat China PMI data, possibly due to the continued rise in coronavirus cases in the U.S. At the moment, the EUR/USD currency pair is trading at 1.1229 and consolidating in the range between 1.1216 – 1.1242. The shared currency faced rejection at a high of 1.1240 during the Asian trading hours. 

At the data front, the country’s retail sales hit +13.9% MoM in May, against the +3.9% expected and -the 5.3% previously, as per the latest data reported by Germany’s Destatis. Surprisingly, the Annual German retail sales hit the +3.8% mark in May, compared to the -6.5% seen in April and the expected -3.5%. 

The Retail Sales data is normally released by the “Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland”, which measures sales in the German retail sector. In addition to this, the data also indicates the performance of the retail sector in the short term. The rate of changes in such sales is indicated as a percentage. However, such changes are widely followed, as an indicator of consumer spending. Consequently, the positive economic growth is usually seen as “bullish” for the shared currency; likewise, a low reading is seen as unfavorable, or bearish, for the shared currency. 

On the other hand, the shared currency buyers did not pay any significant heed to the latest comments by Germany’s Foreign Minister, Heiko Maas, suggesting the optimistic outlook for the European Union (E.U.) recovery fund. Besides, China’s Caixin Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector rose to 51.2 in June from 50.7 in May. According to the data, the pace of development was the fastest in 6 months. With that being said, the Euro is trading on a neutral bias, and any new updates on the U.S. dollar are likely to drive further movement in the EUR/USD pair.

Daily Support and Resistance

S1 1.1129

S2 1.1174

S3 1.1196

Pivot Point 1.1218

R1 1.124

R2 1.1262

R3 1.1306

The EUR/USD is trading sideways between the 1.1250 – 1.1190 levels, and it seems like traders are waiting for a breakout of this range before taking any buy trades. On the higher side, a bullish breakout on the .1250 level can lead the pair towards the 1.1288 and 1.1348 resistance levels. Conversely, a bearish breakout of 1.1190 can drive selling to the 1.1122 level. We are trying to capture a quick profit in a choppy market by selling at 1.1228, in order to target 1.1198. Good luck! 


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