USD Continues To Labor Vs The Majors

Posted Monday, July 6, 2020 by
Shain Vernier • 1 min read

The Greenback is once again on the slide vs the majors. Losses against the euro, GBP, and Swiss franc are pacing today’s forex action. Given the FED’s commitment to QE coupled with the recent uptick in equities and commodities, the slumping dollar comes as little surprise.

Currently, the CME FEDWatch Index shows a 100% chance of interest rates holding at 0.0-0.25% through March 2021. In addition, another US$3 trillion COVID-19 stimulus package is being crafted in the U.S. Congress. The bill is expected to be approved by the end of July, with most of the details remaining a mystery.

So, it looks like the American money supply is going to grow again as the government and FED attempt to support a broad-based economic recovery. At this point, the plan appears to be working ― unemployment is down and business is picking up. Although a good sign for many, the long-term performance of the USD versus the majors may not be so rosy.

The USD Struggles Vs The Majors

The EUR/USD has kicked off the week on the bull, rallying above the 1.1300 handle. The intermediate-term uptrend is intact as Q3 2020 gets underway.

EUR/USD, Weekly Chart

Here are three levels worth watching for the remainder of the week:

  • Resistance(1): Swing High, 1.1422 
  • Resistance(2): 2020 High, 1.1494
  • Support(1): 38% Current Wave, 1.1172

Bottom Line: If the USD extends its summertime decline vs the majors, there may be a shorting opportunity relatively soon in the EUR/USD. For the rest of the week, I will have sell orders queued up from beneath the Swing High at 1.1419. With an initial stop loss at 1.1457, this trade produces 38 pips on a standard 1:1 risk vs reward ratio.

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