NZD/USD has been bullish fro more than four months, since it reversed in mid March, following the big crash in the first two weeks of that month. Commodity currencies turned quite bullish since then, mostly on Chinese economy rebounding from the lock-down in January, leaving behind contraction.

The pressure has been totally to the upside during this time and as a result, this pair has climbed more than 12 cents from the bottom. Moving average shave been doing a great job in providing support during the climb, with smaller MAs taking up that job when the pace of the uptrend was strong, while larger MAs caught up when the pace slowed down.

The 100 SMA (green) has been providing support earlier this month, but recently the 20 SMA (grey) has been doing that job, as the upside momentum gained pace again. Late last week, we saw a pullback down, but the 20 SMA held as support and NZD/USD bounced higher. Today we are seeing another retrace lower but the 20 SMA is holding again and now the price has formed two pin candlesticks above it, which are bullish signals. So, we might decide to go long from here, although we will follow the price action for a while.