EUR/USD Holding In Long-Term Bullish Territory

Today marks the first trading day of October and the Greenback is struggling vs the majors. For the EUR/USD, rates are up a modest 22 pips as Brexit is once again dominating the Eurozone news cycle. Given Brexit, the U.S. election, and COVID-19 fallout, market uncertainty is at an all-time high. For now, it looks like forex players are content limiting exposure to the USD.

This morning’s U.S. economic calendar has been jam-packed with market-moving events. Here are the highlights:

Event                                                                    Actual                 Projected            Previous

Continuing Jobless Claims (Sept. 18)              11.767M                12.225M            12.747M

Initial Jobless Claims (Sept. 25)                         837K                      850K                  873K

ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sept.)                         55.4                        56.3                   56.0

Simply put, these figures suggest that the economy continues on its path to recovery. Americans are going back to work and manufacturing is in positive territory. So, how fast can U.S. economic output return to pre-COVID-19 levels? For now, the answer to that question remains to be seen.

Summer 2020 brought a weak dollar and spike in the EUR/USD. At press time, rates remain in long-term bullish territory and October is positioned to retest the 1.2000 level.

EUR/USD Holds Firmly In Bullish Territory

The EUR/USD weekly chart below gives us a good look at the prevailing uptrend. Rates are well above the 38% Retracement Level (1.1485) and Weekly SMA (1.1712). Both suggest bullish sentiment continues to dominate this market.

Here are the levels to watch going into Friday’s session:

• Resistance(1): Yearly High, 1.2010
• Support(1): Weekly SMA, 1.1712 
• Support(2): 38% Retracement, 1.1485

Bottom Line: If we see the EUR/USD pullback ahead of Friday’s U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report, a long trade opportunity may come into play. Until then, I’ll have buy orders in the queue from 1.1713. With an initial stop loss at 1.1693, this trade produces 20 pips on a standard 1:1 risk vs reward ratio.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Shain Vernier

US Analyst

Shain Vernier has spent over 7 years in the market as a professional futures, options and forex trader. He holds a B.Sc. in Business Finance from the University of Montana. Shain's career includes stretches with several proprietary trading firms in addition to actively managing his own accounts. Before joining FX Leaders, he worked as a market analyst and financial writer.

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