Forex Signals Brief for Nov 2: US Election in Focus
Rowan Crosby • 2 min read
US Market Wrap
US markets had a rough end to the week, with technology names taking a beating.
Is was a bad week, that got even worse, but in reality, the tech names and key risk forex pairs, were really just the canary in the coal mine, as sentiment often deteriorates in the lead up to the election
Last week ended with the USD rallying and the majors under pressure. The week might even start in the same fashion, but it’s anyone’s guess how it ends.
The Data Agenda
It could be suggested that this might just be the biggest trading week we’ve seen all year.
Not only do we have the US election, we have four central bank decisions along with the ever-important US non-farm payrolls.
At the end of the day, I still believe the election is the key ingredient. We only have to look back to what happened in 2016 to see just how hard markets rallied on the surprise Trump victory. We might not be surprised this time around, but Biden still leads in the polls.
Just to keep things interesting, we have the RBA, BOJ, BOE and FOMC releasing their statements as well. The RBA looks set to cut rates further, despite Australia holding up as well as most, while the BOE could be ramping up the stimulus on the back of the latest lockdown.
From the jobs perspective, we are looking at the unemployment rate falling to 7.6% (down from 7.9%) which is positive, while 600K new jobs should have been created.
Forex Signal Update
The FX Leaders Team hit 15 winners from 21 trades for a 71% strike rate in what was another strong week for the guys in the lead up to the election.
Make sure you follow our live signals this week as we will likely see huge volatility post-election.
EUR/USD – Active Signal
The EUR/USD has been very soft as risk assets have been getting sold down. We’re short looking for that trend to continue.
DAX – Pending Signal
The DAX bore the brunt of the selling last week and as yet we haven’t been able to bounce. That said, price stopped falling and there is support. That means there is a chance for a big move higher on the US election result if Trump were to win.
BTC bounced off the $13,000 level last week and remains in a bullish pattern.
Once again, price has been holding up strongly, despite other risk-on plays getting hit hard. This is still telling me that there are buyers here and clearly the PayPal news has really reinvigorated the crypto market once again.
Expect price to rally hard if risk assets can turn things around, which is predominately based around a Trump victory this week. That means we could see that test of $14,000 and another leg higher in the whole sector.