Forex Signals Brief for Nov 13: The Vaccine Rally Slows Down
Rowan Crosby • 2 min read
US Market Wrap
US markets fell away yesterday and there was a clear flight to the safe haven forex pairs.
After the news of a vaccine getting close, it looks like markets are now starting to take their foot off the pedal.
At the same time, there is more talk of the widespread voter fraud in the US election, that continues to cast serious doubts of the status of the US election.
Data wise, we did see a positive result with jobless claims falling for another week and continuing the trend in the right direction.
While CPI came out relatively in line with expectations, in what was not expected to be a standout result.
There were a number of central bank speakers talking at an ECB forum, including the Fed’s Powell, however, they were also not all that upbeat even with a vaccine getting closer by the day.
The Data Agenda
The data agenda is light today, with the only key release being the US PPI print.
We are expecting a slight downgrade to 0.2% from the prior of 0.4%.
In Europe, we do get Eurozone GDP and some other second-tier data, but don’t expect there to be anything that is overly market-moving here today.
Forex Signal Update
The FX Leaders Team hit 2 winners from 5 trades yesterday, in what was a quiet session volatility wise, but with plenty of flows into the safe-havens.
Make sure you follow our live signals as volatility could increase into the weekend.
Silver – Active Signal
SILVER got hit hard on the vaccine news and is now back under $25. We’re short looking for that level to hold.
EUR/USD – Active Signal
The EUR/USD remains quite range-bound, but with plenty of selling in risk assets we are short here.
As we suspected it might, BTC has broken through the $16,000 level and is looking very bullish.
This is a textbook long setup in my book, and we have opened a long signal as a result.
We can easily manage our risk off that $16,000 level, while the next obvious price point is $17,000, giving us around that 4:1 risk/reward.
This trade has all the key ingredients now, inducing a strong catalyst, increasing volume, a series of higher lows and coiling beneath followed by a hold above key resistance. There are no guarantees in this business but it is a nice spot never the less.