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ADP Employment January

US Employment Jumps Back Up in January, After the Dive in December

Posted Wednesday, February 3, 2021 by
Skerdian Meta • 1 min read

The employment sector has been improving in the US since the unemployment suged in spring last year. We were seeing some strong numbers from the ADP report, but the December report showed a decline of 123K, which was a bit surprising. Although, today’s report showed that employment bounced back up in January, which brings us to normal levels.

 

ADP US January Jobs Report

  • ADP January jobs report +174K vs +50K expected
  • December ADP jobs were -123K (revised to -78K)
  • Goods producing jobs +19K vs -18K prior
  • Service providing jobs +156K vs -105K prior
That’s a positive surprise for the headline and prior. This report isn’t exactly running with a great track record and jobs aren’t at the top of the market’s mind.
At some point we’ll be headed towards a ‘good news is bad news’ paradigm on US employment. I think that’s still at least 8 months away but below 6% unemployment, every job that comes back beyond that brings the Fed closer to hiking rates. Meanwhile, the mortgage applications also turned positive last week.
  • US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 29 January +8.1% vs -4.1% prior
  • Prior week mortgage applications were -4.1%
  • Market index 981.1 vs 907.6 prior
  • Purchase index 334.6 vs 334.2 prior
  • Refinancing index 4,746.2 vs 4,261.5 prior
  • 30-year mortgage rate 2.92% vs 2.95% prior
The jump in the past week owes much to a spike in refinancing activity but purchases in general also continue to hold up. That continues to reflect stronger housing market conditions in general, as has been the case with rates being this low.
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