Unemployment claims surged higher in the US during the lock-down months, to more than 6.6 million in March. They cooled off since then, but remained in the millions until the last week of August.

Eventually they declined below 800K and were heading below 700K as well, although in the first two weeks of January we saw a surge above 900K again, which raised some eyebrows. But, jobless claims have decline in the last two weeks, falling below 899K again, which puts the declining trend back on.

US Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims

• Initial jobless claims 779K vs. 830K estimate.
• Prior week revised down to 812K from 847K
• Four-week average of initial claims 848.25K vs 849.50K last week
• Continuing claims 4,592K vs. 4,700K estimate. Prior week revised up to 4,785K from 4,771K previously reported
• Four-week average of continuing claims 4,881.75K vs 5,001.75K last week.
• Pandemic unemployment assistance 7,217,713 vs. 7,343,682 last week
• 50 states reported 3,603,098 continuing claims for pandemic emergency unemployment compensation benefits vs. 3,893,008 last week
• The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending January 23 were in Florida (+23,592), Ohio (+7,002), New York (+4,065), Maryland (+2,450), and Arizona (+1,028),
• The largest decreases were in California (-59,016), Kansas (-8,495), Georgia (-7,896), Pennsylvania (-6,341), and Tennessee (-6,016).

US Q4 Prelim Non-Farm Productivity Report