AUD/USD has been bullish since March last year, when the USD started to turn bearish, which has been declining since then. As a result, this forex pair has climbed more than 23 cents from the bottom to the top.

Pullbacks have been pretty weak, once in September and once in January this year, but moving averages have been holding as support on the daily chart. They have been been solid support indicators, pushing the price higher.

On the H4 chart, the 100 SMA (green) used to provide support during the strong bullish run in November and December, but after January’s retrace the 50 SMA has taken its place. Earlier today we saw a pullback, but the 50 SMA held as support and the price is bouncing off of it now. We might try to go long, but the price has bounced 30 pips higher now, so we might have lost the chance.