EUR/USD turned bearish in the first week of January, after being bullish for nearly a year. It reversed at 1.2350, which didn’t hold any particular importance, and fell around 650 pips lower, until the end of March, as the decline in the USD stopped.

This month we have seen a retrace higher, taking this pair 300 up to 1.1996 earlier today. This meas nearly 50% Fibonacci retracement level and it is a very important level too, which has provided resistance before for EUR/USD .

The 50 SMA (yellow) and the 100 SMA (green) which have been providing support and resistance before, aslo stand around this level, helping in providing resistance this time. The retrace now seems complete, with the stochastic indicator severely overbought, so we decided to take this opportunity and open a sell forex signal, based on the daily chart above.

Fundamentals also point increasingly to a strong USD bullish reversal to come at some point, with today’s date showing further improvement for March, especially retail sales which surged. So, we just opened the trade, targeting March lows above 1.17.