USD/CAD Continues the Bounce, After BOC Keeps Keeps the Same Bias
Skerdian Meta • 2 min read
USD/CAD was on a bearish trend which lasted more than a year, until the beginning of summer. Moving averages were pushing it lower on the daily chart, as the USD kept declining while the CAD was following Oil prices higher. The trend changed in early June and this pair climbed pretty close to 1.30 in August. During the last couple of weeks, we saw a pullback in USD/CAD, after the big upside-down pin which is a bearish reversing signal.
But, the 200 SMA (purple) which had acted as resistance before turned into support and this pair bounced higher yesterday. Today, the Bank of Canada interest rate decision was on the agenda, although they didn’t really change anything from the last meeting. USD/CAD continues the climb after the BOC meeting, so buyers remain in charge in this pair as well.
Bank of Canada Rate Decision and Statement
- Rate of QE unchanged at $2B per week, as expected
- Rates left unchanged at 0.25%, as entirely expected
- “Supply chain disruptions are restraining activity in some sectors and rising cases of COVID-19 in many regions pose a risk to the strength of the global recovery”
- The global economic recovery continued through the second quarter
- Weak Q2 GDP largely reflects a contraction in exports, due in part to supply chain disruptions, especially in the auto sector
- Housing market activity pulled back from recent high levels, largely as expected
- BOC continues to expect the economy to strengthen in the second half of 2021, although the fourth wave of COVID-19 infections and ongoing supply bottlenecks could weigh on the recovery
- Factors pushing up inflation are expected to be transitory
- This is a statement-only release, no projections or press conference
- Macklem will deliver a speech tomorrow
The Governing Council judges that the Canadian economy still has considerable excess capacity, and that the recovery continues to require extraordinary monetary policy support. We remain committed to holding the policy interest rate at the effective lower bound until economic slack is absorbed so that the 2 percent inflation target is sustainably achieved. In the Bank’s July projection, this happens in the second half of 2022. The Bank’s QE program continues to reinforce this commitment and keep interest rates low across the yield curve. Decisions regarding future adjustments to the pace of net bond purchases will be guided by Governing Council’s ongoing assessment of the strength and durability of the recovery. We will continue to provide the appropriate degree of monetary policy stimulus to support the recovery and achieve the inflation objective.