Services are not improving in Europe

Forex Signals Brief for March 3: Services Expected to Improve Slightly

Posted Friday, March 3, 2023 by
Skerdian Meta • 3 min read

Yesterday’s Market Wrap

Yesterday we saw an uptick in Italian unemployment rate, which was a sign that the Eurozone unemployment rate might tick higher as well, which it did, increasing from 6.6% to 6.7%. Although, the most improtant report was the consumer inflation data from the Eueozone, which was expected to show another cool off to 8.3% for the headline CPI (consumer price index) number.

But, headline inflation came at 8.6% for February and Janiuary was revised highe to 8.6% as well, so we had no change. Core inflation on the other hand, posted an increase, from 5.3% to 5.6%, although the Euro ended up around 70 pips lower yesterday against the USD. Unemployment claims posted a slight cool off, which kept the sentiment positive for the USD, while risk assets were declining.

Today’s Market Expectations

Today started with the Tokyo core CPI YoY inearly Asian session, which posted a decline, followed by the Caixin services report, which showed another improvement in the service sectoor in China. In early Euripean session we had the Eurozone services PMI reports, confirming that this sector is in expansion and it is improving slowly. Later on, the US ISM services are expected to show a slight slowdown for last month, but thay is coming after a strong jump in activity during January.

Forex Signals Update

After the choppy price action on Wednesday, markets took a position yesterday as the USD started to get some momentum going again, while risk assets retreated lower. We opened four trading signals, three of them long on the USD, which closed in profit, while the short USD position in EUR/USD closed in loss.

The 100 SMA Holding as Support for GOLD 

Gold is going through a bullish retracing period this week, which continued yesterday despite the advabnce in the USD. XAU has been bearish since early February, with MAs providing resistance on the H4 chart, pushing the highs lower. But buyers continued to push higher and the 50 SMA (yellow) has turned into support, where we opened a short term buy signal which close din profit.

XAU/USD – 60 minute chart 

AUD/USD Resuming Decline

AUD/USD showed buying momentum in early trading has been bearish for a month, but earlier this week we saw a retrace higher. Although buyers ran into the 50 SMA (yellow) on the H4 chart. We decided to open a sell signal yesterday as the buying pressur ewas fading and that trade closed in profit after the bearish reversal.

AUD/USD – 240 minute chart

Cryptocurrency Update

The bearish momentum of 2022 came to an end and cryptocurrencies turned bullish in with the start of 2023, making some decent gains in January, as the USD declined while risk sentiment improved. Bitcoin peaked above $25,000 last month, although buyers were unable to hold gains above that level and the buying pressure faded eventually. But, they are coming back again it seems.

BITCOIN Consolidating Before the Next Move

Bitcoin held better than other risk markets during last month and it conitnues to make higher lows. In the first half of February BTC/USD retreated after reching $24,000 but tghe lows remained above $20,000. Now, after retreating from above $25,000 BTC is holding above $23,000 and i starting to show some buying pressure. The price held around the 200 SMA (purple) once again on the H4 chart, and now BTC has increased above $23,000.

BTC/USD – 240 minute chart

The 50 SMA Holding As Support for ETHEREUM 

Ethereum retreated and fell below moving averages on the H1 chart below, after failing to hold gains above $1,700. The 200 SMA (purple) was acting as resistance for some time, but yesterday we saw a decisive move by buyers who pushed ETH above this moving average, which should turn into support if the trend is to turn bullish.

ETH/USD – 240 minute chart   
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