Forex Signals Brief June 28: Central Bankers Appearing All at Once Today

Today central bankers meet at the ECB forum which might induce volatility in financial markets

Skerdian Meta•Wednesday, June 28, 2023•2 min read

The ECB is expected to hold rates steady in this meeting

Yesterday’s Market Wrap

The USD was making gains last week, as risk sentiment turned negative, sending risk currencies lower. But, this week we are seeing a reversal, with the USD retreating lower while risk assets making gains. Yesterday the USD retreated lower during the European session, but the volatility died out during the US session, as the economic data from the US showed resilinece in the economy, with the sentiment, durable goods orders and new home sales increasing last month.

In Canada, prices are slowing further unlike in the UK, with the headline inflation number falling to 3.4% in May from 4.4% in June. CPI MoM also missed expectations, while Gasoline prices came at -18.3% vs -7.7% y/y. As a result, the CAD ended up lower at the end of the day.

Today’s Market Expectations

Today started with inflation numbers from Australia which showed a decent slowdown in May from 6.8% in April, although the Aussie is more prone to the economic data from China. The economic data during the day is pretty light, with only the Italian Prelim CPI inflation numbers for May. ALthough we have a plethora of central bankers holing speeches in a panel discussion titled “Policy panel” at the ECB Forum on Central Banking, in Sintra.

Forex Signals Update

Yesterday the volatility was low, although it was enough for us to pull several trading signals, three of which were Gold signals while the other one was a GBP/USD signal. We ended up with two winning Gold signals, and two losing ones, although, one of the winning Gold signals was a long term trade.

GOLD Returning to the Lows Again

Gold continues to show weakness, as sellers keep coming back after every retrace higher. The highs are getting lower, which shows the bearish momentum, and moving averages are acting as resistance. Yesterday we saw a bearish reversal and the price closed at last week’s lows, heading for $1,900 so we will try to sell the retraces higher in Gold.

XAU/USD – 240 minute chart

USD/JPY Moving Above 144

USD/JPY continues to show resilience, after turning bullish at the end of April and has been making strong gains during this month, climbing around 15 cent4 from the lows. Moving averages are doing a good job as support indicators, particularly the 20 SMA (gray0 which confirms the strength of the uptrend. So, we will try to buy the retraces lower.

GBP/USD – 240-minute chart

Cryptocurrency Update

BITCOIN Holds Above $30,000 But Can’t Hold Above $31,000

Bitcoin underwent a rapid reversal towards the end of the previous week, following a brief dip below the $25,000 level. Buyers stepped in and pushed the price above the moving averages on the daily chart. As the week drew to a close, Bitcoin managed to reach a new high for the year, surpassing the $31,000 mark.

BTC/USD – Daily chart

Can the 100 SMA Hold As Support for ETHEREUM

Ethereum encountered a decline that pushed it below the $1,630 level. However, the presence of the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) (represented by the purple line) acted as support and prevented further downward movement. This moving average served as a support level on the daily chart, and the price formation above it resulted in a doji candlestick pattern, which is considered a bullish reversal signal. As a result, last week we witnessed a bounce off the moving average, with ETH/USD moving above $1,900. However, it fell short of reaching our take-profit (TP) target, although the price is finding support at the 100 daily SMA (green).

ETH/USD – Daily chart

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Skerdian Meta

Lead Analyst

Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst. Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.