USD/CAD Tumbling Lower on Higher Oil and Inflation in Canada

The US dollar (USD) has been strengthening on the FED keeping the hopes up for additional rate rises, keeping USD/CAD on a positive trend since July, continuously pushing the price to higher highs. The deteriorating Canadian economy, which has kept the Bank of Canada on the sidelines, has been a big contributor to the upward trend in USD/CAD. Although the market has been driving this pair higher because it does not believe the BOC will hike rates again, there is still a ton of data to come before the next meeting.

Today we had the inflation report which showed a bounce in August. Headline CPI inflation jumped 7 points higher to 4.0% last month from 3.3% in July, which might be a reason for the BOC to keep the rhetoric strong, although the odds for further rate hikes are low. USD/CAD has dived to 1.3380 after the report, although the surge in crude Oil, with US WTI above $92 is also helping the CAD.

Canada August CPI Inflation Report

• Canada August CPI 4.0% versus 3.8% expected
• July CPI infation was 3.3%
• CPI MoM 0.4% % versus 0.3% expected
• Prior CPI MoM 0.6%
• CPI YoY 4.0% % versus 3.8% expected

Core measures:

• BOC Core YoY 3.3% versus 3.2% last month
• BOC Core MoM 0.1% versus 0.5% last month
• CPI median 4.1% versus 3.9% last month (revised from 3.7%
• CPI Trim 3.9% versus 3.6% last month
• CPI Common 4.8% versus 4.8% last month

Highlights:

• The rise in August’s CPI was majorly due to higher gasoline prices (+0.8%) compared to a decrease in July (-12.9%).
• Excluding gasoline, the CPI growth was consistent at 4.1% for both August and July.
• Canadians experienced higher rent, mortgage interest, and energy costs in August.
• Prices for travel-related services decreased, and food price growth slowed compared to the previous month.
• The monthly deceleration was largely due to drops in travel tours (-6.4%) and air transportation (-6.9%) prices after the July summer travel peak.
• On a seasonally adjusted basis, the monthly CPI growth was 0.6%.

USD/CAD Live Chart