Gold Price Oscillation Amid Geopolitical Tensions and Economic Indicators
GOLD prices have snapped their recent upward trend that commenced on October 17, seeing a decline to approximately $1,970 per troy ounce in Monday’s Asian session. Historically, geopolitical skirmishes, such as those between Israel and Hamas, have bolstered gold’s demand, given its status as a conventional safe-haven. However, the prevailing risk appetite in the market is tempering gold’s ascent.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is experiencing an upward trajectory, currently hovering around the 106.30 mark. This surge is attributed to the buoyancy in US Treasury yields. Specifically, the 10-year US Treasury yield has climbed to 4.98%, marking a 1.30% increment at the time of this report.
Additionally, the US dollar is potentially fortified by strong domestic economic indicators from the past week. Recent employment figures depict a burgeoning economy, with weekly initial jobless claims touching their most favorable levels since the onset of the year, showcasing a robust employment landscape. Conversely, the real estate sector is witnessing a downturn, with existing home sales plummeting to a decade low, highlighting potential headwinds in the sector.
Recent statements from Federal Reserve officials have provided further clarity on the monetary policy outlook. The Atlanta Fed’s Raphael Bostic and the Philadelphia Fed’s Patrick Harker have both signaled a reticence towards rate reductions until mid-next year. Loretta Mester, the Fed Cleveland President, intimated that the central bank is approaching its rate-hike zenith while also noting that recent data might sway forthcoming monetary decisions. Reinforcing this stance, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell underscored last week that immediate rate hikes are not on the horizon but did allude to potential monetary tightening if growth indicators strengthen.
Market participants are poised to closely monitor upcoming US economic data points, including the US S&P Global PMI set to release on Tuesday and the Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) scheduled for Thursday. These pivotal metrics can substantially shape market sentiment and offer a deeper understanding of the US’s macroeconomic health.
Today’s gold trading commenced with a notable dip, breaching the 1977.25 threshold and consolidating beneath it, suggesting a potential bearish pivot. However, a subsequent attempt at recovery is evident, catalyzed by the stochastic indicator’s positive momentum. For the bullish trend to regain its foothold, the price needs to breach the 1977.25 barrier, aiming for the subsequent bullish target at 2016.90.
The EMA50 metric remains supportive of the proposed bullish trajectory. It’s crucial to note that any failure to exceed 1977.25 could instigate further price downturns, possibly approaching the 1945.20 benchmark.
Today’s trading range is projected between the 1960.00 support level and the 1995.00 resistance.
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