Forex Signals Brief November 22: US Durable Goods Orders to Turn Negative in October

Today’s Market Expectations

Today starts with a speech from the governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia. He will speak about the economic outlook and monetary policy at the Australian Business Economists Annual Dinner, in Sydney, which might have some mild bearish impact on the AU.

Later in the US session, we have the unemployment claims from the US. Last week, US Jobless Claims fell short of forecasts across the board, despite Continuing Claims plainly demonstrating a strong rising trend. Initial Claims are expected to be 225K this week, down from 235K the previous week, with no Continuing Claims expected at the time of writing.

The US retail sales for October will be released at the same time. They have been beating expectations in the last several months, indicating that the US consumer remains strong, although headline sales are expected to turn negative in October and show a 3.2% decline. Although core sales re expected to remain positive at +0.2%.

Yesterday the USD weakness continued in the Asian session and we remained short on the USD, booking profit on two Gold signals. But we saw a retreat during the European and the US sessions, which sent EUR/USD down while we were long on this pair already. So, we closed three forex signals in profit, and one in loss yesterday.

GOLD Piercing Abvoe $2,000 Again

Gold prices turned bullish last month and increased significantly as a result of the Gaza conflict, exceeding the important $2,000, while now it’s the economic uncertainty which is keeping Gold in demand. Gold fell earlier this month as geopolitical instability in the Middle East subsided. However, with last week’s poor US inflation figures, Gold buyers are back in charge, and attitude has shifted. Although buyers appear to be hesitant near the $2,000 mark, after yet another retreat yesterday following the break of this level.

XAU/USD – 60 minute chart

• Gold Buy Signal
• Entry Price: $1,963.12
• Stop Loss: $1,949.12
• Take Profit: $1,971.12

GBP/USD Remains Supported Above 1.25

Following a month of consolidation in October, the GBP/USD pair appears to be making a bullish reversal this month, as buyers push the price above moving averages that are converting to support on the daily timescale. This pair has been bearish since July, but there have been some significant bullish reversal indicators this month, with higher highs and lower lows. Despite this, the British economy is still failing, which should keep the Pound weak, but the FED is widely expected to keep rates unchanged as inflation in the US slows, with both the US CPI (consumer price index) and the PPI (producer price index) falling short of expectations last week.

GBP/USD – 60 minurte chart

Cryptocurrency Update

The 50 SMA Holds As Support for BITCOIN After the Retreat

The cryptocurrency market continued to be volatile last week, with Bitcoin nearly hitting $35,000 following a decline and then rising to nearly $38,000 following a rise. We’re still waiting on an announcement on an ETF. A more positive cryptocurrency climate has continued to favor Bitcoin since the Securities and Exchange Commission approved a Bitcoin spot ETF. Because of this, late last month, this cryptocurrency increased and reached $35,000 before declining and weakening. Buyers took the initiative and drove the price up to more than $36,000, even though they did not lose much ground. Buyers paused just below last month’s high of $38,000 and retreated lower, but buyers came in right at the 50 SMA (yellow), so the trend remains bullish.

BTC/USD – Daily chart

ETHEREUM Reversing at the 20 Daily SMA

After a few encouraging developments for the digital market, Ethereum gained more than $300 and surged above $1,800 thanks to the bullish sentiment in the cryptocurrency market. It’s great that the zone around $1,700 turned into support, and it appears that the 50 SMA (yellow) has done the same. Earlier this month, the price of ETH/USD broke above $2,000, signaling that buyers are in control and that we should have taken profits on our prior Ethereum signal. However, given that the 20 SMA is serving as support, we choose to open another ETH signal following the lower retreat of last week.

Ethereum – Daily minute Chart

• ETH Buy Signal
• Entry Price: $1,947.38
• Stop Loss: $1,490
• Take Profit: $2,500