Buying Gold After the Dip on Stronger US Economic Numbers
The USD started declining lower when the US session started, but is is finding some bids now, after some strong economic numbers which show that the US economy is holding up well. This improved the sentiment for the USD briefly, with the idea that we might see some strong numbers early next year, postponing the FED rate cuts, although I don’t know it that is possible.
The CB consumer confidence report showed that the US consumer is feeling confident for the second month, as energy prices fall. Existing home prices were expected to fall once again, but they beat expectations and increased instead in November. Gold dipped to $2.030 after the data was released, triggering the take profit target in our Gold signal. We decided to reverse the trade and open a buy Gold signal since is it finding some buying interest around this area.
US Consumer Confidence from The Conference Board for December 2023
- December consumer confidence 110.7 points vs 104.00 points expected
- November flash consumer confidence was 102.0 points (revised to 101.0 points)
Details:
- Present situation index 148.5 points vs 138.2 points prior (revised to 136.5 points)
- Expectations 85.6 points vs 77.8 points prior (revised to 77.4 points)
- 1 year Inflation 5.6% vs 5.7% prior
- Jobs hard-to-get 13.2 points vs 15.4 points prior
It’s a long-overdue reaction to lowering gasoline prices and a surge in US equities, which is improving the consumer confidence. We’re still a long way from the pre-covid range of approximately 130. However, the implication here is that customers were feeling a little better ahead of Christmas, which is the busiest time of year for retail sales. This should translate into a stronger fourth quarter and stronger economic data in January, which might add support to the USD.
US Existing home Sales for November 2023
- Existing home sales November 3.82M vs 3.77M estimate
- October home sales were 3.79M
- Existing home sales 3.82M vs 3.77M estimate annualized. First gain in 5 months.
- Up 0.8% on the month. Last month the gain was 4.1%
- Year-over-year, sales fell -7.3% (down from 4.12 million in November 2022).
- Inventory 1.130M or 3.5 months (down -1.7%)
- National median home price $387,600, up 4.0% from November 2022. That is the highest ever and the 5th consecutive month of year-over-year price increase.
Regionally
Northeast Region:
- Existing-home sales decreased by 2.1% from October to November.
- Annual sales rate: 470,000 in November, a 13.0% decrease from November 2022.
- Median price: $428,600, a 4.8% increase from the previous year.
Midwest Region:
- Existing-home sales increased by 1.1% from October to November.
- Annual sales rate: 940,000 in November, an 8.7% decrease from one year ago.
- Median price: $280,800, a 4.9% increase from November 2022.
South Region:
- Existing-home sales improved by 4.7% from October to November.
- Annual sales rate: 1.77 million in November, a 4.3% decrease from the prior year.
- Median price: $351,500, a 3.4% increase from last year.
West Region:
- Existing-home sales decreased by 7.2% from October to November.
- Annual sales rate: 640,000 in November, an 8.6% decrease from one year before.
- Median price: $603,200, a 5.3% increase from November 2022.
Looking at other details:
Market Time:
- Properties typically stayed on the market for 25 days in November.
- This duration is up from 23 days in October and 24 days in November 2022.
- 62% of homes sold in November were on the market for less than a month.
First-Time Buyers:
- Represented 31% of sales in November.
- This is an increase from 28% in both October 2023 and November 2022.
- The annual share of first-time buyers was 32%, as reported in NAR’s 2023 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers.
All-Cash Sales:
- Made up 27% of transactions in November.
- This is a decrease from 29% in October but an increase from 26% in November 2022.
Investor and Second-Home Buyers:
- Purchased 18% of homes in November.
- This is an increase from 15% in October and 14% from one year ago.
Distressed Sales:
- Accounted for 1% of sales in November.
- This percentage is virtually unchanged from the previous month and year.
NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun:
“The latest weakness in existing home sales still reflects the buyer bidding process in most of October when mortgage rates were at a two-decade high before the actual closings in November. A marked turn can be expected as mortgage rates have plunged in recent weeks.”
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