Selling Oil at the 200 SMA, As EIA Inventory Draw Fails to Reverse the Trend
Crude Oil has been following a bearish pattern that began in September, with US WTI crude sliding below $68. However, the decline in crude Oil has halted for about a month, and the price has been consolidating above $70. Today we saw a drawdown in the EIA crude inventories, which didn’t give much boost to Oil prices, but buyers started coming later on.
WTI H4 Chart – The Highs Keep Getting Lower
The price rose above $76 by the middle of December as the USD turned bearish again following dovish FED comments, but sellers returned and the highs continue to move lower. Crude Oil prices were inching higher earlier today, increasing above $73. But after the U.S. Energy Information Administration released the report, showing an estimated inventory decline of 2.5 million barrels for the week to January 12.
This compared with a moderate inventory build of 1.3 million barrels for the previous week, which also saw another round of massive increases in fuel inventories that drove prices lower at the time. For last week, the EIA also reported an inventory increase in gasoline and middle distillate stocks. In gasoline, there was an estimated inventory increase of 3.1 million barrels for the week to January 12. This compared with a build of 8 million barrels for the previous week.
US EIA Crude Oil Inventories
Crude Oil Inventory Change:
- Crude oil inventory changed by -2.5 million barrels, compared to the previous week’s change of +1.3 million barrels.
- The consensus estimate was a decrease of -0.313 million barrels.
Gasoline Inventory Change:
- Gasoline inventory changed by +3.1 million barrels, compared to the previous week’s change of +8 million barrels.
- The consensus estimate was an increase of +2.150 million barrels.
Distillate Inventory Change:
- Distillate inventory changed by +2.4 million barrels, compared to the previous week’s change of +6.5 million barrels.
- The consensus estimate was an increase of +0.880 million barrels.
Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR):
- The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) changed by +0.6 million barrels, the same as the change for the week ending January 5.
Yesterday the API data showed a 448K increase in inventories, however, the information comes from a privately conducted poll by the American Petroleum Institute (API). This is a review of oil storage facilities and companies.
API Private Cude Oil Inventories
- Headline crude 448K -300K barrels
- Distillates 5.21 million vs +0.9 mn bbls
- Gasoline 4.86 million vs +2.2 mn
- Cushing -1.98 million
WTI Crude Oil Live Chart
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