The Jump in JOLTS Jobs Confirms the Recovery in the US Labor Market
The labor market was the main sector to keep the US economy afloat during last year’s slowdown in the global economy, helping it avoid recession. Employment did see a dip in Q4 on 2023, particularly the JOLTS job openings report, but the recent jobs reports have been positive, showing a reversal in this sector which is aiding the USD.
US job opportunities in December increased by 9.026 million, beating estimates of 8.750 million. Besides that, the revisions for November were positive, which makes this a solid employment report. The strong jobs numbers prompted an instant bid in the US dollar, with USD/JPY being the biggest mover after jumping 90 pips higher to 148, having claimed back all losses for the day. This is quite a strong reaction to a slight JOLTS beat considering that we have the non-farm payrolls NFP on Friday, but it comes just before the FED meeting, so traders are agitated.
The market expects a dovish move from the FOMC, but given the solid economic reports that we have seen this month, there is a case to be made that they may remain hawkish for longer without risking an unwarranted slowdown.
The JOLTS Job Openings for December 2023
- JOLTS Job Openings (December):
- Actual: 9.026 million
- Estimate: 8.750 million
- Previous (Revised): 8.925 million (originally reported as 8.790 million)
- Quits Rate:
- Quits rate unchanged at 2.2%. The quits rate is a measure of workers voluntarily leaving their jobs, reflecting confidence in their ability to find new opportunities.
- Layoffs and Discharges:
- Little changed at 1.6 million or 1.0% for the fourth consecutive month.
- Hires:
- Little changed at 5.6 million, with an effectively unchanged rate of 3.6%. The number of hires decreased in healthcare and social assistance (-119K) but increased in state and local government excluding education (+35K).
- Total Separations:
- Little changed at 5.4 million with an unchanged rate of 3.4%. This includes quits, layoffs, discharges, and other separations.
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