The sharp rise in last month’s Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) initially alarmed the markets in early August. However, subsequent employment reports, including last week’s and today’s NFP figures, have painted a more stable picture. This has eased fears of a looming U.S. recession, as the initial spike in employment numbers appears to have been influenced by temporary factors, such as hurricane-related closures.
From the jobless claims perspective, the labor market remains in good shape. Both initial and continuing claims were in line with expectations, indicating that layoffs are not increasing significantly. The slight downward revision in continuing claims further supports the view that the labor market is stable, with steady demand for workers.
The U.S. dollar has gained strength across the board, bolstered by a stronger-than-expected GDP report and jobless claims that met expectations. The robust GDP growth figures, especially the 2.9% increase in consumer spending (which surpassed the 2.0% forecast), indicate a resilient economy with healthy consumer demand.Given these strong economic indicators, it seems unlikely that the Federal Reserve will opt for a 50 basis point rate cut in September, even if future NFP reports show weaker job growth. Market pricing now reflects a reduced probability of such a rate cut, dropping to a 32% chance from 36% yesterday.
Price Action in the Forex market
The recent economic data has notably impacted currency markets, particularly the USD/JPY pair, which has surged by 100 pips following the release of the figures. Other major currency pairs have also seen movement, with shifts of approximately 30-40 pips, reflecting the broader market reaction to the strong U.S. economic data.