Asian Markets Trade Mostly Lower

Asian stock markets are trading mostly lower on Monday, despite the broadly positive cues from Wall Street on Friday, as traders react to downbeat factory activity data from China for the fourth straight month in August. They also remain optimistic over the outlook for interest rates after a report showing US consumer prices increased in line with estimates in July, while the annual rate of price growth was unexpectedly flat. Asian markets closed mostly higher on Friday.

While the US data has reinforced expectations of an interest rate cut by the Fed this month, traders expressed uncertainty about the pace of rate cuts, leading to some volatility in the markets.

According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, there is a 69.5 percent chance of a quarter-point rate cut next month and a 30.5 percent chance of a half-point rate cut.

The Australian stock market is currently trading modestly lower on Monday, reversing the gains in the previous session, despite the broadly positive cues from Wall Street on Friday. The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index is falling below the 8,100.00 level, with weakness is mining stocks amid tumbling metal prices. Traders also reacted to data that showed domestic manufacturing sector extended its slump in August.

The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index is losing 17.90 points or 0.22 percent to 8,074.00, after hitting a low of 8,041.30 earlier. The broader All Ordinaries Index is down 22.90 points or 0.28 percent to 8,293.80. Australian stocks closed notably higher on Friday.

Among the major miners, Rio Tinto is losing almost 1 percent and BHP Group is edging down 0.4 percent, while Mineral Resources is adding more than 1 percent and Fortescue Metals is edging up 0.3 percent.

Oil stocks are mostly higher. Santos is edging up 0.2 percent and Woodside Energy is gaining almost 1 percent, while Origin Energy is edging down 0.3 percent. Beach energy is flat.

Among tech stocks, Xero and WiseTech Global are edging up 0.2 to 0.3 percent each, while Afterpay owner Block and Zip are losing almost 1 percent each. Appen is surging 5.5 percent.

Gold miners are mostly lower. Evolution Mining is losing more than 2 percent, Resolute Mining is declining almost 4 percent, Northern Star Resources is down almost 2 percent and Gold Road Resources is slipping more than 1 percent. Newmont is edging up 0.4 percent.

Among the big four banks, Commonwealth Bank, National Australia Bank, ANZ Banking and Westpac are edging up 0.2 to 0.4 percent each.

In other news, shares in Imugene are skyrocketing more than 27 percent after medical developer released promising results from a trial of its cancer treatment in 10 patients. it reported a net loss near $150 million in the 2024 financial year.

Shares in REA Group have been halted minutes before the commencement of trading this morning after the online real estate platform confirmed its mulling a bid for UK-listed Rightmove.

Shares in Star Entertainment have been suspended from trading for not publishing its full-year result last week.

In economic news, the manufacturing sector in Australia continued to contract in August, albeit at a slower rate, the latest survey from Judo Bank revealed on Monday with a manufacturing PMI score of 48.5. That’s up from 47.5 in July, although it remains beneath the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.

The total number of building permits issued in Australia was up a seasonally adjusted 10.4 percent on month in July, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Monday – coming in at 14,797. That beat forecasts for an increase of 2.4 percent following the 6.5 percent contraction in June. Permits for private sector houses rose 0.6 percent on month to 9,252, while permits for private sector dwellings excluding houses surged 32.1 percent to 5,234. The value of total residential building rose 9.0 percent to A$8.49 billion, while the value of non-residential building added 3.2 percent to A$4.69 billion.

Meanwhile, company gross operating profits in Australia were down a seasonally adjusted 5.3 percent on quarter in the second quarter of 2024, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Monday. That missed expectations for a decline of 0.6 percent following the 2.5 percent drop in the three months prior. Profits were down 3.9 percent on year. Manufacturing sales rose 0.3 percent on quarter and 0.7 percent on year, while inventories rose 0.1 percent on quarter and 1.5 percent on year and wages added 0.7 percent on quarter and 5.3 percent on year.

In the currency market, the Aussie dollar is trading at $0.676 on Monday.

The Japanese stock market is trading modestly higher on Monday, adding to the gains in the previous session. The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 is moving above the 38,700 level, following the broadly positive cues from Wall Street on Friday, with gains across most sectors lead by index heavyweights and technology stocks.

The benchmark Nikkei 225 Index closed the morning session at 38,709.88, up 62.13 or 0.16 percent, after hitting a low of 38,670.66 earlier. Japanese shares ended notably higher on Friday.

Market heavyweight SoftBank Group is gaining almost 1 percent and Uniqlo operator Fast Retailing is also adding almost 1 percent. Among automakers, Honda is gaining almost 2 percent, while Toyota is adding more than 1 percent.

In the tech space, Screen Holdings is gaining almost 1 percent, Advantest is advancing more than 3 percent and Tokyo Electron is adding more than 1 percent.

In the banking sector, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial is edging up 0.5 percent, while Mitsubishi UFJ Financial and Mizuho Financial are gaining more than 1 percent each.

The major exporters are mostly higher. Canon and Mitsubishi Electric are gaining almost 1 percent each, while Panasonic is adding more than 2 percent. Sony is losing 1.5 percent.

Among other major gainers, IHI and Kawasaki Heavy Industries are gaining almost 5 percent each, while Yaskawa Electric and Tokyo Electric Power are adding almost 4 percent each. Credit Saison, Murata Manufacturing, TDK and Daiwa Securities are gaining more than 3 percent each, while Takashimaya, Sumco, Mitsubishi Chemical Group and NEC are advancing almost 3 percent each.

Conversely, Sumitomo Pharma is plunging almost 7 percent and Chugai Pharmaceutical is sliding almost 5 percent, while Toto and ZOZO are slipping more than 3 percent each. Nitori Holdings and Sapporo Holdings are losing almost 3 percent each.

In economic news, the manufacturing sector in Japan continued to contract in August, albeit at a slower rate, the latest survey from Jibun Bank revealed on Monday with a manufacturing PMI score of 49.8. That’s up from 49.1 in July, although it remains beneath the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.

In the currency market, the U.S. dollar is trading in the lower 146 yen-range on Monday.

Elsewhere in Asia, Hong Kong is down 1.6 percent, while New Zealand, China, Malaysia and Taiwan are lower by between 0.1 and 0.6 percent each. Singapore and Indonesia are up 0.5 percent each. South Korea is relatively flat.

On Wall Street, stocks fluctuated over the course of the trading session on Friday before eventually ending day sharply higher. The Dow closed higher for the fifth time in the past six sessions, reaching a new record closing high.

The major averages reached new highs for the session going into the close of trading. The Nasdaq surged 197.19 points or 1.1 percent to 17,713.62, the S&P 500 jumped 56.44 points or 1.0 percent to 5,648.40 and the Dow climbed 228.03 points or 0.6 percent to 41,563.08.

Meanwhile, the major European markets ended the day slightly lower. While the French CAC 40 Index edged down by 0.1 percent, the U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index and the German DAX Index both closed just below the unchanged line.

Crude oil prices showed a significant move to the downside on Friday on reports that OPEC is set to proceed with a planned oil output hike from October. West Texas Intermediate crude for October delivery plunged $2.36 or 3.1 percent to $73.55 a barrel.

Mattel's Fisher-Price Recalls 366K Dumbbell Toy

New York-based Fisher-Price Inc., owned by toymaker Mattel, Inc., has called back about 366,200 units of Dumbbell toy sold with Baby Biceps Gift Set citing choking hazard, according to the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission. In addition, about 37,850 units were sold in Canada.

The recall involves the plastic dumbbell toy sold with the Fisher-Price Baby Biceps Gift Set with model number GJD49. The bar of the dumbbell toy is gray with orange and red plastic weights on each side.

They were manufactured in China and Vietnam, and sold at Walmart, Kohls, Fred Meyer, Hobby Lobby, Marshalls, TJMaxx, Buy Buy Baby and Target stores nationwide, and online at Amazon.com, Walmart.com, Zulily.com, Target.com and other websites. The recalled products were sold from April 2020 through August 2024 for about $18 for the Baby Biceps Gift Set.

According to the agency, the gray caps on the end of the dumbbell toy can come off, and can choke infants. The recall was initiated after the firm received seven reports in the U.S. of the ends of the dumbbell coming off of the product. However, no injuries have been reported so far.

Consumers are urged to immediately stop using the recalled dumbbell toy, take it away from young children, and contact Fisher-Price to receive a refund.

In recent recalls for children’s products, Shawshank LEDz in mid-August called back about 9,600 units of Squeeze Plush Ball Monsters Toys and Easter Squeezable Toys due to risk of injury.

Attom Tech in early August recalled about 4,100 units of LED light-up jelly ring toys with button cell batteries due to ingestion hazard.

European Economic News Preview: Eurozone Final Factory PMI Data Due

Final factory Purchasing Managers’ survey results from the euro area and the UK are the top economic news due on Monday.

At 3.15 am ET, Spain’s manufacturing PMI data is due. The index is forecast to rise to 52.1 in August from 51.0 in July.

At 3.45 am ET, S&P Global publishes Italy’s manufacturing PMI survey results. Economists forecast the PMI to rise to 48.0 in August from 47.4 a month ago.

At 3.50 am ET, France’s HCOB manufacturing PMI survey data is due. The final PMI is seen at 42.1 in August, in line with flash estimate, and down from 44.0 in July.

At 3.55 am ET, S&P Global is slated to issue Germany’s factory PMI survey results. The initial estimate showed that the manufacturing PMI dropped to a five-month low of 42.1 from 43.2 in the prior month.

At 4.00 am ET, Eurozone final manufacturing PMI data is due. The final PMI reading is seen at 45.6 in August, down from 45.8 in July.

At 4.30 am ET, S&P Global publishes UK manufacturing PMI survey results. The index is set to match the flash estimate of 52.5 in August compared to 52.1 in July.

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Yen Falls As Japanese Stock Market Traded Higher

The Japanese yen weakened against other major currencies in the Asian session on Monday, as Japanese stock market traded higher, adding to the gains in the previous session, with gains across most sectors lead by index heavyweights and technology stocks.

The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 is moving to a tad shy of the 39,000 level for the first time since late July, following the broadly positive cues from Wall Street on Friday.

Traders remain optimistic over the outlook for interest rates after a report showing U.S. consumer prices increased in line with estimates in July, while the annual rate of price growth was unexpectedly flat.

While the U.S. data has reinforced expectations of an interest rate cut by the Fed this month, traders expressed uncertainty about the pace of rate cuts, leading to some volatility in the markets.

According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, there is a 69.5 percent chance of a quarter-point rate cut next month and a 30.5 percent chance of a half-point rate cut.

In economic news, the manufacturing sector in Japan continued to contract in August, albeit at a slower rate, the latest survey from Jibun Bank revealed on Monday with a manufacturing PMI score of 49.8. That’s up from 49.1 in July, although it remains beneath the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.

In the Asian trading today, the yen fell to a 6-day low of 161.84 against the euro, a 1-month low of 192.37 against the pound and a 4-day low of 172.24 against the Swiss franc, from last week’s closing quotes of 161.50, 191.89 and , respectively. If the yen extends its downtrend, it is likely to find support around 165.00 against the euro, 197.00 against the pound and 175.00 against the franc.

Against the Australia and the New Zealand dollars, the yen slipped to 1-month low of 99.19 and 91.52 from last week’s closing quotes of 98.89 and 91.37, respectively. The yen may test suppoprt near 102.00 against the aussie and 93.00 against the kiwi.

Against the U.S. and the Canadian dollars, the yen slipped to nearly a 2-week low of 146.55 and more than a 2-week low of 108.62 from Friday’s closing quotes of 146.16 and 108.33, respectively. On the downside, 151.00 against the greenback and 111.00 against the loonie are seen as the next support levels for the yen.

Looking ahead, manufacturing PMI results from various European economies and U.K. for August are slated for release in the European session.

U.S. and Canada markets are closed in account of Labor Day holiday.

China Manufacturing Activity Recovers On New Orders

China’s manufacturing activity recovered in August as new orders returned to growth, driving faster production growth, data from S&P Global showed on Monday.

The Caixin manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index rose to 50.4 in August from 49.8 in July.

Although the score signaled that the manufacturing sector improved following the brief deterioration, the rate of improvement was only marginal.

The official PMI survey data released over the weekend showed that the manufacturing sector contracted again in August. The PMI fell to 49.1 from 49.4 in July. At the same time, the non-manufacturing PMI rose slightly to 50.3 from 50.2 a month ago.

Manufacturing production increased for a tenth consecutive month in August driven by firms in the consumer and intermediate goods sectors, data from S&P Global showed. Incoming orders returned to growth on better underlying demand conditions and promotional efforts.

On the other hand, due to weak external demand, export orders dropped in August. Export orders fell marginally for the first time in the year-to-date period.

The improvement in demand led to a stabilization of staffing levels following an 11-month period of decline with some firms taking on additional staff to cope with ongoing workloads.

Meanwhile, purchasing activity fell marginally as manufacturers had sufficient input stock holdings. Lead times lengthened at a slightly faster pace amidst supply and transportation constraints.

Average input costs decreased fractionally for the first time in five months. Respondents linked the decline to the lowering of raw material prices. In turn, manufactures reduced their selling prices.

Confidence strengthened to a three-month high in August as firms grew more optimistic that improvements in economic conditions and business development efforts will bear fruit in the year ahead.

Caixin Insight Group senior economist Wang Zhe said the challenges and difficulties in stabilizing growth over the coming months will be substantial.

“There is still room for fiscal and monetary policy adjustments,” Zhe added. “There is an increasingly urgent need for China to enhance policy support and ensure the effective implementation of earlier policies,” the economist said.

Gold Price Forecast: Stronger Dollar and Fed Policy Expectations Pressure Gold at $2,497

Gold prices (XAU/USD) have continued their descent, trading around $2,497.91 and reaching an intraday low of $2,490.12.

The ongoing decline is largely attributed to a stronger U.S. dollar, which gained momentum as traders adjusted their expectations regarding potential policy easing by the Federal Reserve.

This change in outlook followed the release of the U.S. July Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index, which signalled that the Fed might not be as aggressive in cutting interest rates as previously anticipated.

Continue reading “Gold Price Forecast: Stronger Dollar and Fed Policy Expectations Pressure Gold at $2,497”

Strong Swiss Retail Sales and Dovish SNB Can’t Help USDCHF

Amidst the recent financial market turbulence, traditional safe-haven assets have demonstrated significant strength. USDCHF has dropped over 8 cents, while both the Japanese yen and gold have seen even greater gains. Despite a positive risk sentiment reflected in the stock market, the Swiss franc (CHF) has also exhibited its typical safe-haven appeal.

Swiss July retail sales report

Continue reading “Strong Swiss Retail Sales and Dovish SNB Can’t Help USDCHF”

NIKKEI225 Backs Down from Last Week’s Gains

nikkei225 retreats from friday's highs

Japanese stocks retreat from Friday’s recent high following global stocks’ pause in the recent rally.

Monday brings little in macro news and the [[NIKKEI225]] drops 0.87% on the day as investors contemplate the length of the recent rally. Overnight we got Manufacturing PMI for Japan, the consensus of 49.5 was just beaten, pulling a number of 49.8.

The number is a sharp increase over last month’s reading of 49.1, but still below 50, which signal expansion in activity. The market also received data for Capital Spending, investments made by corporations.

Data showed an increase of 7.4% compared to last month’s 6.8% but fell short of forecasts of 9.9%. The market didn’t see enough proof of economic expansion and the profit taking took over the quiet start to the week.

Investors are riding the AI-Tech driven rally, however, the [[NAS100]] has lost 1.5% over the past 6 trading sessions. In the background, we still have the recent comments for BoJ governor Ueda stating that rate hikes will continue.

We may see the scenario where positive economic news, like expanding activity and jobs growth, will cause volatility as investors perceive a greater likelihood of higher rates.

Technical View

nikkei225 hits major resistance

The day chart for the NIKKEI225 above shows a bear market undergoing a major correction. The last bullish leg that has taken the index from 30,746 to current levels of 38,803. The market is now finding resistance from the Ichimoku cloud and the level of 39,447 (purple line).

The market recently formed a rectangle (yellow area) with yesterday’s candle showing a breakout to upside. However, the pattern has occurred close to the cloud and the resistance of a previous high (purple line).

I see a break above the cloud as technically improbable, although the chances increase over the next 5 sessions where the cloud is thin. The most likely scenario is a side ways market, with the top trapped by the cloud and the low supported by a previous support of 37,599 (red line).

[[NIKKEI225-graph]]

Forex Signals Brief September 2: BOC Rate Cut and NFP Week

Last week the attention was on the US PCE inflation report, which is the FED’s preferred inflation measure, however until Friday there were many data releases. US Durable Goods Orders posted a massive jump in July, but the core number showed a -0.2% decline. The prelim GDP report for Q2 beat expectations, coming at 3.0%, with prices also showing some upside pressure, however, the PCE report on Friday leaned on the soft side, however, the USD ended the week higher after retreating during most of August.

The BOC is expected to deliver another 0.25% rate cut this week
The BOC is expected to deliver another 0.25% rate cut this week

Continue reading “Forex Signals Brief September 2: BOC Rate Cut and NFP Week”

Bitcoin Sellers Dominate: Analyst Doubts The Uptrend, Is $50,000 Inevitable?

Bitcoin is yet to recover after the slump last Tuesday. For the better part of last weekend, prices were moving in a tight range. Overall, sellers remain in control, and the coin is capped below the $60,000 level. Every high might offer entry sellers targeting $50,000, though a clean break below $56,500 could be safer. On the flip side, a rally above $66,000 with rising volume will signal a welcomed shift in trend where buyers will be in control.

In the short term, sellers remain in control. The consolidation of the past few days means conservative traders should stay on the sidelines until there is a trend definition. For now, the coin is stable on the last day, pushing weekly losses to over 9%. At the same time, participation continues to shrink, dropping to as low as $26 billion in the last 24 hours.

Bitcoin Daily Chart for September 2

Traders are closely monitoring the following trending Bitcoin news:

  • Peter Schiff thinks falling upward momentum could stall or even swap price action in favor of sellers.
  • Rhodium Enterprises, which recently filed for bankruptcy, can now borrow USD or BTC. Following a court ruling, Galaxy Digital by Mike Novogratz will offer 500 BTC or up to $30 million at an annual interest rate of 9.5% I BTC or 14.5% in USD terms.

Bitcoin Price Analysis

[[BTC/USD]] remains under immense selling pressure.

A look at the daily chart shows that the coin is trading below $60,000.

At the same time, the short-term price action is defined by the bear bar of August  27.

As long as prices are below or within this bar, and trending below $66,000, every high may offer selling entries.

In this event, the first bear target would be $56,500.

Sustained losses could see the world’s most valuable coin plunge to August 2024 lows of around $49,000.