Forex Signals – May 2: NFP Jobs Report Sustains Stock Market Rally

Today the NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls) are expected came above expectations, which left the FED dovish and stock markets bullish into the weekend

Skerdian Meta•Friday, May 2, 2025•3 min read

Unemployment Claims to slow to 133K in April

Quick overview

The NFP is expected to shed around 100K jobs, keeping the FED dovish and stock markets bullish.
The Bank of Japan's steady interest rates and downward inflation forecast weakened the yen, allowing the dollar to outperform.
Gold prices saw a sharp sell-off before stabilizing, driven by improved risk sentiment despite ongoing macroeconomic concerns.
Crude oil prices rebounded after Saudi Arabia clarified its stance on oil prices, boosting market confidence.

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Today the NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls) are expected came above expectations, which left the FED dovish and stock markets bullish going into the weekend.

BOJ Stance Weighs on Yen as Dollar Advances

The Bank of Japan’s decision to leave interest rates steady at 0.50%, while revising its inflation forecast downward, signaled a continued dovish outlook from the central bank. As a result, the Japanese yen weakened notably, with the U.S. dollar outperforming against most majors. The market interpreted the BOJ’s stance as a green light for prolonged accommodative policy, giving the dollar an edge throughout the session.

Gold Slides Before Partial Recovery Amid Improved Sentiment

Gold prices experienced a sharp sell-off early in the day, dropping $85 to touch $3,201.90 before stabilizing slightly. The decline coincided with improved risk sentiment, which diminished the appeal of safe-haven assets. Despite the dip, gold’s broader uptrend remains underpinned by macroeconomic uncertainty and inflation concerns, factors that continue to support demand over the medium term.

Oil Markets Reverse Losses After Saudi Clarification

Crude oil prices also experienced early pressure in U.S. trading, with WTI crude falling by as much as $1.50 before rebounding to end the day about 80 cents higher, closing just above $58.80. The turnaround was aided by a Saudi denial of earlier reports suggesting the kingdom was preparing for an extended stretch of low oil prices. Brent followed a similar path, sliding to $59.30 before recovering sharply to reach $61.85 later in the session. The Saudi clarification added confidence to oil markets, which had appeared unsettled by demand concerns and geopolitical developments.

S&P 500 Climbs Again, Powered by Risk Appetite and Trade Hopes

Equity markets remained in an upward groove, with the S&P 500 posting gains for the eighth consecutive day. The continued rally has stirred fears of short squeezes and FOMO-driven buying, as investor confidence strengthens. Momentum was also fueled by comments from economic advisor Kevin Hassett, who indicated a trade deal announcement could be imminent. While traders remain on alert for details, the optimism helped extend the market’s bullish stretch.

Today’s Market Outlook: All Eyes on U.S. Jobs Data

Attention shifted to today’s highly anticipated U.S. nonfarm payrolls report. Market expectations pointed to a 129,000 increase in jobs for the month, down from 228,000 previously. But the actual number came at 177K which was considerably better than expectations and the FED rate cut odds for June fell from 75% to 40%.

The data is expected to show modest labor market growth. A slowdown in job postings and weaker service sector data reflect a cautious hiring climate, potentially driven by lingering uncertainty around trade policy and federal budget pressures. However, the relatively low level of layoffs has kept the jobless rate stable. Even as hiring demand cools, the lack of widespread job cuts suggests the labor market remains fundamentally resilient.

Last week, markets were chaotic, with gold soaring $500 in the final three days, the EUR/USD surging 5 cents, and stock markets opening down before turning upward. The moves were big, and the volatility was enormous, so we opened 40 trading signals in total, finishing the week with 25 winning signals and 15 losing ones.

Gold Rebounds Sharply on Geopolitical Fears Before Reversing Again

Safe-haven buying reemerged amid intensifying geopolitical concerns, lifting gold back above $3,300 and briefly pushing it to a new high of $3,444—more than $500 above its recent low. However, the rally proved short-lived as optimism surrounding international trade negotiations triggered renewed selling. By the end of the session, gold had slipped below $3,300 once more, eventually closing near $3,200. Despite the retreat, gold remains supported by macro instability and inflationary pressures, which continue to attract defensive positioning.
Chart XAUUSD, D1, 2025.04.30 23:17 UTC, MetaQuotes Ltd., MetaTrader 5, Demo

XAU/USD – H4 Chart

Yen Weakens Again Despite Broader Safe-Haven Trends

While the Japanese yen had recently gained on safe-haven demand, it came under notable pressure again. After initially breaking below the 140.00 level in September 2024—a significant technical support—the USD/JPY pair again dipped below this threshold earlier this year. It has since rebounded nearly six yen from those lows, aided by a strong bounce off the 100-month simple moving average. Still, sentiment remains fragile, and the yen’s trajectory will likely remain sensitive to shifts in global risk appetite and U.S. dollar dynamics.
Chart AUDUSD, D1, 2025.04.30 23:00 UTC, MetaQuotes Ltd., MetaTrader 5, Demo

USD/JPY – Weekly Chart

Cryptocurrency Update

Bitcoin Bounce off the 50 SMA Continues

Bitcoin surged past the crucial 100-day moving average, extending gains beyond $93,000. It has since consolidated just under the $95,000 level, appearing to pause before its next directional move. The digital asset’s performance reflects ongoing investor interest despite broader market volatility. The break of technical resistance levels has added to the bullish outlook, although short-term consolidation may continue before the next leg higher.

BTC/USD – Weekly chart

Ripple Holds Firm in Volatile Crypto Landscape

Despite considerable volatility across cryptocurrency markets, Ripple (XRP) has remained relatively steady. After recovering from strong support in the $1.80 to $2.20 zone, XRP is now trading near the upper end of its recent range. Technical indicators suggest the potential for further gains, especially as XRP remains above its 50-day moving average. Sustained positive sentiment in the broader crypto space could help drive the token higher.
XRP/USD – Daily Chart

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Skerdian Meta

Lead Analyst

Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst. Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.