Bitcoin’s Potential Value if U.S.-China Deal Is Reached
A U.S.-China agreement: A deal would open the door for more yuan printing, potentially pushing BTC past $150,000 by October.
Quick overview
- Bitcoin (BTC) may be poised for a bullish rally due to increasing global liquidity and potential economic agreements between the U.S. and China.
- Historically, rising global liquidity has led to a lagged positive impact on the cryptocurrency market, suggesting a growth phase for Bitcoin could begin in June.
- The ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China, including tariffs and retaliatory measures, have contributed to market volatility affecting Bitcoin's price.
- Future Bitcoin price scenarios hinge on the outcome of U.S.-China trade negotiations, with a deal potentially driving prices above $150,000.
Live BTC/USD Chart
Bitcoin (BTC) could be on the verge of a new bullish rally in the coming months, driven by rising global liquidity and the possibility of an economic agreement between the world’s two largest powers: the United States and China.
A Rally Backed by Monetary Expansion
Since early 2025, global liquidity has been on the rise—a trend that historically reflects in the cryptocurrency market with a lag of about three months. This correlation suggests that Bitcoin could enter a new growth phase starting in June, even after recently pulling back from $74,000 to its current range around $96,300.
If central banks maintain an expansionary stance, the global backdrop could support a “substantial rise.” Still, the key to reaching new all-time highs lies in the evolution of the trade conflict between Washington and Beijing.
Trade Tensions Shape Market Direction
Since Donald Trump returned to the White House, he has imposed new tariffs—25% on goods from Mexico and Canada, and 10% on Chinese imports—prompting a strong retaliatory response from Xi Jinping’s government. China raised tariffs up to 125% on U.S. goods like coal, oil, and food, further escalating bilateral tensions.
This trade dispute has fueled significant market volatility, including in the crypto space. In late April, after a new round of sanctions was announced, Bitcoin briefly dropped to $74,000 before rebounding and stabilizing above $90,000.
The Yuan, Inflation, and Beijing’s “Pain Threshold”
Beyond tariffs, the exchange rate of the Chinese yuan is a critical variable for Bitcoin’s future. China’s economy is facing deflationary pressures and may be forced to ramp up monetary stimulus, which would put additional pressure on the yuan. However, there’s a limit: when the yuan approaches 7.30–7.35 per U.S. dollar, the People’s Bank of China typically pulls back on money printing to stabilize the currency.
These monetary shifts have historically aligned with peaks and pauses in Bitcoin’s price, reinforcing the idea that crypto markets are partly tied to Chinese exchange rate policy.
What’s Next for BTC?
Two potential scenarios are emerging:
- No trade deal: Continued tensions would restrict global monetary expansion, likely keeping Bitcoin capped around $110,000.
- A U.S.-China agreement: A deal would open the door for more yuan printing, potentially pushing BTC past $150,000 by October.
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