Super Micro (SMCI) Stock Slides Back to Lows as Soft Outlook Erodes Optimism
Despite posting strong first-quarter results, Super Micro's stock is under pressure due to cautious second-quarter and full-year outlook.
Quick overview
- Super Micro's stock remains under pressure despite solid Q1 results, following a significant pre-earnings sell-off.
- The company reported adjusted EPS of $0.31 and revenue of $4.6 billion, exceeding expectations, but provided disappointing guidance for Q2 and full-year 2025.
- Lowered expectations are attributed to delayed client deployments, causing investor unease despite confidence in long-term demand trends.
- The market remains sensitive to guidance, and SMCI's stock is likely to stay vulnerable until clearer signs of re-acceleration emerge.
Despite posting strong first-quarter results, Super Micro’s stock is under pressure due to cautious second-quarter and full-year outlook.
Shares Struggle to Recover Following Pre-Earnings Sell-Off
Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ: SMCI) continues to face selling pressure, as its stock stayed pinned near session lows following the release of its fiscal Q1 2025 results. After a 7% drop earlier in the day, the stock fell over $2 toward the $30 mark, struggling to recover investor confidence that had already been shaken last week when the company unexpectedly slashed its guidance ahead of earnings.
SMCI Stock Chart Daily – Buyers Can’t Put Up A Rebound Off Support 
That guidance update—delivered on April 29—had triggered a steep overnight decline of nearly 20%, pushing shares down from around $36 to as low as $28. This set the tone for muted market expectations heading into today’s report, despite the actual Q1 results coming in better than expected on both revenue and adjusted earnings.
Q1 Beats, But Forward Guidance Disappoints Again
Fiscal Q1 (ending March 31):
- Adjusted EPS: $0.31
- Revenue: $4.6 billion
- Previous quarter (Q4): $0.67 EPS on $3.85 billion revenue
Guidance for Fiscal Q2 (current quarter):
- Expected EPS: ~$0.30
- Sales: ~$4.55 billion
- Prior Wall Street expectations: $0.53 EPS on $5.38 billion revenue
June Quarter (Fiscal Q3) Outlook:
- Adjusted EPS: ~$0.45
- Revenue: ~$6 billion
- Analyst consensus (FactSet): $0.66 EPS on $6.65 billion revenue
Full-Year 2025 Outlook:
- Revised Revenue Range: $21.8B to $22.6B
- Previous Estimate: $23.5B to $25B
Supermicro attributed the lowered expectations to delayed client deployments, shifting deals from Q1 into later quarters. While management remains confident in long-term demand trends, particularly in AI and data center infrastructure, the near-term softness has fueled investor unease.
Conclusion: Fragile Sentiment Lingers for SMCI as Market Looks Beyond the Numbers
Despite a sequential improvement in revenue and year-on-year expansion, SMCI’s updated projections have failed to inspire a rebound in its share price. The market reaction highlights just how sensitive investors are to guidance in a high-growth sector increasingly driven by expectations tied to AI infrastructure cycles.
Until the company can provide clearer signs of re-acceleration—or at least stabilize forward expectations—its stock is likely to remain vulnerable. For now, SMCI is caught in a cautious holding pattern, with future upside contingent on execution and renewed confidence in enterprise spending.
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